Super Bowl 57 Picks & Betting Trends
The eyes of the nation turn their gaze to Glendale, Arizona this Sunday as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.
For the first time in five years, the championship features the top seeds in each conference. In addition, it will pit two recent champs as the Eagles took Super Bowl LII, that last battle of Number 1’s, while the Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV.
It projects as a very even matchup between two excellent teams. The very first odds right as the Chiefs won their AFC Championship game had KC as 1-point favorites, but Eagles money poured right in, popping Philly up to -2.5 before settling in at Eagles -1.5 or -2 depending on the book. The total opened at 49.5 then ticked up a shade to -50.5 or 51, where it has sat.
WynnBET currently has the Eagles -2, with the money at -104, with the Chiefs +2 at -112. The Total is 51 with -108 on both sides. Right now new customers take advantage of welcome bonuses with the WynnBET promo code. Bet $100 and get $100 in bet credits, or alternatively bet just $1 and get $57 in bet credits in honor of the Super Bowl.
Point Spread and Trends
Super Bowl LVII is close to even money and perhaps will get there if Patrick Mahomes looks perfectly healthy. For now, though, the Eagles are favored and will likely stay that way. Super Bowl favorites have gone 28-25-2 vs the spread, with Super Bowl XLIX between the Patriots and Seahawks closing as a pick ‘em. Underdogs have done well in recent years as they have covered 11 of the past 15 Super Bowls and eight of the last ten. That includes last year as the Bengals came in as 4 or 4.5-point dogs and lost by three.
Super Bowl LVI was one of only nine times that a Super Bowl winner did not also cover the spread, and two of those were pushes. That is roughly in line with how often teams regularly win without covering, and of course, it is very dependent on the level of the point spread. With the odds on this game close to even, it is extremely unlikely to see either team winning without covering.
Neither team has excelled vs the number in 2022. The Eagles are 10-9 vs the spread including two playoff covers, while the Chiefs were 7-11-1, splitting in the postseason. The Chiefs did however do well vs NFC teams as they won all five of their games straight up and covered four of them, with a push in the fifth one.
Then there is Coach Andy Reid coming off a bye. He is in a class by himself as he has gone 29-6 outright in his career, and 7-3 in the playoffs though two of those three losses were in Super Bowls. Over the years as Coach Reid’s bye mastery became apparent, spreads started to factor that in, but it has not mattered much as Reid has gone 22-13 overall vs the number off a bye and 7-3 in playoff games.
Totals and Trends
The Chiefs rank first in the league in points per game, while the Eagles rank third, but totals obviously always price that in. Eagles Overs have gone 10-9 counting the playoffs, while the Chief’s Overs are 8-11.
Super Bowls do not tend to see anything abnormal as far as totals go, In fact, the markets have priced them quite well with Unders winning 28, Overs winning 27 and one game pushing. The under has dominated very very recently, winning the past four and five of the last seven. This year’s total is on the high end, and that has tended to produce an Under when that happens. In Super Bowl totals over 48, Unders have won nine of eleven.
Totals in this year’s playoffs have gotten quite streaky. Offenses exploded right at the start as the first five games went Over. Then starting with the Monday Night Bucs-Cowboys game, Unders have hit seven straight times and counting.
Interesting Statistical Matchups
Both teams have excellent offenses as measured in both relatively basic stats such as points per game and yards per play, as well as advanced stats such as Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) via Football Outsiders. DVOA “breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on the field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality.” The system rates teams in percentages with the number representing how much they exceed or trail vs the “average” team”
The Chiefs place first in overall offensive DVOA at 23.0%, while the Eagles are third at 15.1%, while in defense it flips with the Eagles sixth at -9.7% (negative is better on defense) and the Chiefs a middling 17th at 1.4%.
Further breaking DVOA down highlights some interesting matchups. The Chiefs throw the ball on 62% of their plays, which makes perfect sense as they have Patrick Mahomes and the NFL’s top Pass DVOA at 41.1%. Unfortunately for them, they will face the Eagles with the league’s best Defensive Pass DVOA at -15.1%.
If you pass well it makes perfect sense that down and distance situations mean a little less and the Chiefs do excel relative to the league in 3rd and long situations, with a whopping 159% DVOA, but again, so do the Eagles on defense in those spots with a -93.7% DVOA. The Chief’s best shot is on 1st down where they also lead the league at 25.3% DVOA and the Eagles place 12th in Defensive DVOA at -6%.
When the Eagles have the ball they will match up well on the ground as they grade out as the top rushing team with a 15.4% DVOA while the Chiefs are the 15th best defensive Run DVOA at -6.9%.
Oddly, coincidentally, or interestingly (take your pick) both teams excel in 2nd quarter. KC has the best 2nd quarter offense with a 31.7% DVOA while Philly bests the league in 2nd quarter defense at -18.9%. The same pattern holds true in Late and Close situations as the Chiefs have the third-best offensive DVOA while the Eagles have the second-best defense.
At the end of the day, it probably all boils down to how well the Chiefs can contain the Eagles run game. Both teams feature outstanding QBs that any defense will be hard-pressed to contain. The Eagles however can gash teams with the run while the Chiefs rarely commit much to it. Philly has a league-best 15.4% Run DVOA, led by Miles Sanders and augmented by QB Jalen Hurts and their wildly effective Run-Pass Option (RPO) game. Can the Chiefs keep it enough in check? On the flip side, the Chiefs do run fairly well and Mahomes is always a threat to take off, even with a bad ankle as he showed late vs the Bengals, but uses his mobility to buy more time on passes than for scrambles.