The Seattle Seahawks bring a backup quarterback to Allegiant Stadium on Sunday. The Las Vegas Raiders answer with a rookie making his first NFL start. Drew Lock starts again for Seattle with Sam Darnold out. Meanwhile, No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza takes over in Las Vegas after Kirk Cousins was traded to Minnesota. Seattle is a 6.5-point road favorite with the total at 40.5, and the spread has moved hard since it opened. This Seahawks vs Raiders prediction breaks down the quarterback matchup, the injury report and the market. Then it lands on two plays.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Las Vegas Raiders — Game Info
| Where | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas Nevada |
| When | November 15 – 4:05 PM ET |
| TV | CBS |
Seattle Seahawks vs. Las Vegas Raiders Week 10 Betting Preview
The quarterback matchup shapes everything here. Lock makes his second straight start after going 19 of 28 for 175 yards and a touchdown in last week’s 17-3 win over Arizona. He was limited in practice all week with elbow and oblique injuries but carries no game designation. Darnold is out with rib and quad injuries, and coach Mike Macdonald has said he could return after the Week 11 bye.
On the other side, the Raiders hand the offense to Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner they took first overall in this year’s draft. His only regular-season action came late against New England, when he went 6 of 8 for 48 yards in his debut. Now he faces the defending Super Bowl champions and the league’s top-ranked defense. There is a coaching wrinkle as well. Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak was Seattle’s offensive coordinator last season, so he knows Macdonald’s defense well.
Mendoza’s supporting cast matters. Tight end Brock Bowers and receiver Tre Tucker are expected to be his top targets. In contrast, the ground game offers little help. Las Vegas averages just 2.9 yards per carry, the worst mark in the NFL. Now it runs into the league’s top-ranked defense.
Both teams arrive with something to prove. Seattle is 5-4 and bounced back from a 34-17 Monday night loss to Chicago by smothering Arizona. Las Vegas is 4-5 and coming off a 38-17 loss at San Francisco that unraveled with five second-half turnovers.
The injury report tilts toward the Raiders. Seattle has ruled out left tackle Charles Cross, guard Quenton Nelson and defensive tackle Leonard Williams along with Darnold. Still, receiver Rashid Shaheed and edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu return after missing two games, and Jarran Reed is back on the interior. Las Vegas lists only defensive tackle Thomas Booker and receiver Dont’e Thornton as questionable. These teams last met on November 27, 2022, when the Raiders won 40-34 in overtime in Seattle.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | -6.5 (-112) | -285 | O 40.5 (-110) |
| Raiders | +6.5 (-108) | +235 | U 40.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of November 15, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Seattle Seahawks vs. Las Vegas Raiders — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Seahawks | 80% | 20% | Raiders |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Three and a Half Points for a Rookie’s Debut?
Start with the move. Seattle opened as a 3-point favorite and now sits at 6.5, a climb through 3, 4 and 6, three of the most common NFL margins. Four of every five spread tickets are on Seattle, and the line has moved the same way. That is movement with the public, so it carries little sharp signal on its own. What it does show is how heavily the market has priced the switch to a rookie quarterback. Seattle, with a backup of its own, is now asked to win by a touchdown on the road.
The case for the underdog rests on how Seattle wins. The Seahawks have a losing record against the spread, while the Raiders are 6-3 ATS. With Lock under center, the offense leans on its defense and running game, and he threw only 28 passes last week. A total of 40.5 signals a low-scoring script. In that kind of game, a 6.5-point cushion covers a larger share of the final margin. At -108, the price needs only about 51.9% to break even. The total tells a similar story. It opened at 43.5 and has dropped to 40.5, a fall that one report tied to Mendoza being named the starter.
However, the case against is real. Mendoza is making his first start against the league’s top-ranked defense. The Raiders also turned the ball over five times in one half last week. Their league-worst running game could leave him in obvious passing downs, too. Seattle also beat Arizona by 14 just last week. Finally, 6.5 sits just under the key number of 7, so a one-touchdown Seattle win still beats this ticket.
The Pick: Raiders +6.5 (-108)
What Happens When Seattle Meets the NFL’s Softest Run Defense?
Las Vegas allows 151.2 rushing yards per game, the most in the league. That lines up with what Seattle wants to do with a backup quarterback. The Seahawks ran for 120 yards against Arizona, and Zach Charbonnet led the way with 16 carries for 77 yards. It was only his second game back from a torn ACL, and his touches nearly doubled from the week before. As a road favorite protecting a lead, Seattle should keep feeding him. The market already expects volume. His 15+ Rush Attempts price sits at -160, and he is -120 to post the most rushing yards in the game. Even so, the 70+ rung at +110 implies only about 47.6%, and the matchup suggests he clears it more often than not.
Still, there are risks. Jadarian Price shares the backfield, and AJ Barner has taken short-yardage work near the goal line. If Mendoza keeps the game close or Seattle falls behind, the run volume could shrink. Note that this play and the Raiders pick share one input, which is Seattle leaning on the ground with Lock. They are not independent reads.
The Pick: Zach Charbonnet 70+ Rushing Yards (+110)
Our Final Word on Seahawks vs. Raiders
This game turns on two quarterbacks neither team planned to start this season. Seattle’s defense deserves its reputation, but the offense now runs through a backup and a ground game. Our last look at Seattle came in the Cardinals vs. Seahawks prediction, and the Raiders’ collapse is covered in our Raiders vs. 49ers prediction. Both games inform the reads above. Our two plays rest on the same picture. Seattle runs the ball patiently, and a rookie only needs to avoid mistakes to keep it close.
Raiders +6.5 (-108) is the top play because the market has already moved 3.5 points toward a Seattle team starting its backup quarterback. Zach Charbonnet 70+ Rushing Yards (+110) is the second play because he gets a rising workload against the league’s most generous run defense.