Patriots vs. Eagles Week 11 Prediction
Will the Patriots rebound from their first loss of the season and also avenge their Super Bowl loss to the Eagles on Sunday? Or will the host Eagles cover as a 4.5-point favorite as Carson Wentz finally gets his shot at New England?
469 New England Patriots (-4.5) at 470 Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5); O/U 45
4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 17, 2019
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Patriots are receiving 62% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
New England Patriots Fantasy Spin
Mohamed Sanu caught 10-of-14 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown in Week 9 against the Ravens. This was a bounceback for Sanu after getting held to 23 yards in his debut. Sanu was on the receiving end of Tom Brady’s only touchdown after a muffed punt set up the Patriots in the red-zone. He led the team in targets and looked on the same page with Brady, who completed over 60 percent of his passes to Sanu and Julian Edelman. Sanu is going to face some competition for targets when N’Keal Harry gets acclimated, but he’ll be on the WR2 radar for a matchup with the Eagles after the Patriots bye.
Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Spin
According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Miles Sanders is expected to see “far more” carries than Jay Ajayi in Sunday’s Week 11 matchup against New England. Sanders has largely been confined to passing downs this season but Ajayi was never expected to see workhorse usage, particularly on such short notice after signing with the Eagles Friday. With Jordan Howard (stinger) and Darren Sproles (hip) both shelved, the Eagles are down to Sanders, Boston Scott and Ajayi as their long healthy running backs. As sure-handed as they come—his 305 receiving yards are the most among rookie running backs—Sanders could see heavy volume as a pass-catcher with Philadelphia entering Sunday as 4.5-point home underdogs.
NFL Betting Trends
The Patriots are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their last five games following a bye and are 46-20 against the number in their last 66 games overall.
The Eagles have covered the spread in six of their last seven games versus an opponent with a winning record and are 6-2 against the number in their last eight games coming off a win.
The Patriots are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games versus the Eagles and from a “value” standpoint, Philadelphia catching 4.5 points at home after Baltimore laid out the blue print on how to beat New England offers tremendous value. That said, I can’t bet against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady after 1) a bye and 2) a loss. This is also a revenge spot for the Patriots, who lost to the Eagles in the Super Bowl two years ago when Nick Foles and Co. pulled off the upset. The Patriots are 46-21-1 against the spread in their last 68 games following a straight up loss. That’s incredible.
NFL Week 11 Prediction: New England Patriots -4.5