Patriots vs. Dolphins Week 15 Prediction
AFC East foes meet in South Beach on Sunday when the Dolphins host the Patriots at 1:00 p.m. ET. Will Miami cover as a 1.5-point home favorite and eliminate New England from playoff contention in the process?
Game Snapshot
353 New England Patriots (+1.5) at 354 Miami Dolphins (-1.5); o/u 41.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 20, 2020
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
TV: CBS
New England Patriots DFS Spin
Cam Newton completed 9-of-16 passes for 119 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception in the Patriots’ Week 14 game against the Rams. Newton added seven carries for 16 yards. Listed as “questionable” with an abdomen injury, Newton was absolutely dismal in a non-competitive game, heading to the bench for the final 10 minutes with the Rams winning 24-3. Newton’s surgically-repaired throwing arm/shoulder looked weaker than ever, with the veteran having to put everything he had into even short passes. Newton’s interception was a pick six on a botched screen where Aaron Donald may have gotten a piece of Damien Harris. Presenting zero passing threat, the Rams teed off on Newton for three third quarter sacks. Newton could have made his night look better with a rushing score, but got stood up from the three and two-yard lines in the second quarter. Lucky to escape with only one turnover, Newton had the looks of a player running on empty. Speaking after the game, coach Bill Belichick did say he would be sticking with Newton. He has 10 days to rest up for an equally-foreboding Week 15 matchup with the Dolphins. Newton will be a zero-floor QB2 for that one.
Miami Dolphins DFS Spin
Tua Tagovailoa completed 28-of-48 passes for 316 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in the Dolphins’ Week 14 33-27 loss to Kansas City, adding six rushes for 24 yards and a score. Tagovailoa consistently took what KC’s defense would give him in a pass-heavy game script, eclipsing 300 yards without DeVante Parker — who left the game in the first quarter — and Jakeem Grant, who left after catching three passes. His six rushing attempts included a goal line sneak late in the game in Miami’s furious comeback attempt. The rookie has 612 passing yards and three touchdowns through the air over his past two outings. His Week 15 matchup against New England isn’t all that appealing, but he should be a mid-range QB2.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Prediction
The favorite is 11-5 against the spread in the last 16 meetings between these two teams, while the home side has cashed in 14 of the last 17 meetings in this series. The Patriots are also just 2-6 against the spread in their last eight the Dolphins in Miami. The Pats are also just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games, are 3-7-1 against the number in their last 11 games played in December and are 2-5 at the betting window in their last seven road games versus a team with a winning home record.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight conference games, are 5-0 against the number in their last five home games and are 4-0 at the betting window in their last four games played in December. Miami has cashed in seven straight games at home when facing an opponent with a losing road record.
NFL WEEK 15 BETTING PREDICTION: MIAMI DOLPHINS -1.5
