Packers vs. Falcons Pick
Will Sunday’s NFC Championship Game between the Packers and Falcons at 3:05PM ET be the shootout that everyone expects?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Falcons are 5.5-point home favorites versus the Packers after opening as a 5-point favorite. As for the total, the number sits at a whopping 60.5 after it opened at an equally-whopping 59.5 points.
The Packers will head into this weekend severely banged-up on both sides of the ball. Jordy Nelson is doubtful for Sunday due to a ribs injury suffered Wildcard Weekend versus the Giants, while Davante Adams is questionable with an ankle injury. Defensively, Morgan Burnett is questionable after suffering a quad injury last Sunday versus the Cowboys, while Quinten Rollins is question due to a concussion. Clay Matthews, at least, is probably with a shoulder ailment.
The Falcons, meanwhile, are relatively healthy. Julio Jones hasn’t practiced this week due to a reoccurring toe/foot injury, but he should play on Sunday. The same goes for Taylor Gabriel (foot), although safety Keanu Neal is questionable with a foot injury. Adrian Clayborn is out for the rest of the season after tearing his biceps injury.
OUR PREDICTION: Even though the total is set ridiculously high at 60.5, there’s no good reason to bet the under on Sunday. The Falcons are averaging nearly 34 points a game and just hung 36 points on a Seattle defense that was without Earl Thomas, but is still significantly better than Green Bay’s banged-up defensive unit. Aaron Rodgers will also produce plenty of points against an improved Atlanta defense, but one that is still susceptible of giving up touchdowns inside the red zone. In fact, the Falcons own the worst red zone defense in the NFL. The over is 6-0 in the Falcons’ last six playoff home games, is 9-0 in their last nine home games overall, and is 11-1-1 in their last 13 conference games.
2017 NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PREDICTION: PACKERS/FALCONS OVER 60.5