Saints vs. Vikings Total Pick
Will Sunday’s NFL Divisional Round matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings turn into a high-scoring game for bettors?
Matchup: Saints (12-5) at Vikings (13-3)
TV: FOX, 4:40 p.m. ET
Line: Vikings -5
ODDS: According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the over/under currently sits at 46.5 points after hitting the board at 44.5. The Vikings, meanwhile, opened as a 3.5-point home favorite to beat the Saints, who are now a 5-point underdog.
PUBLIC BETTING: As of this writing, 63% of the betting tickets are on the Saints but 62% of the money is on the Vikings. Meanwhile, 60% of the betting tickets and 85% of the money is on the over for Sunday’s Divisional tilt.
INJURY REPORT: The Saints have a slew of players listed on their injury report. Linebacker Dannell Ellerbe (foot) and Brandon Coleman (neck) are both questionable. Andrus Peat (leg), Tony McDaniel (undisclosed), David Parry (ankle) and Coby Fleener (concusions), among others, are all out for the year.
The Vikings are relatively healthy, although two players – Sam Bradford and Dalvin Cook – that helped them beat the saints in Week 1 won’t play this time around. Tramaine Brock (foot) and Pat Elflein (shoulder) are both probable.
OUR PREDICTION: Despite the Vikings employing one of the best defenses in the playoff field this year, I actually believe this game will be relatively high-scoring. The Saints rank second in total yards (391.2), fifth in passing yards (261.8), fifth in rushing (129.4) and fourth in points per game, averaging 28.0 per contest. They simply have too much firepower not to contribute to the score going over the total on Sunday.
On the other side, say what you want about Minnesota quarterback Case Keenum but the guy has been outstanding all year long. The Vikings are averaging 23.9 points per game, which ranks 10th in the NFL. Keenum has been adept at avoiding sacks this season while extending drives with his play inside and outside of the pocket.
The over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams in Minnesota and 7-2 in the last nine meetings overall. The over is also 9-3-1 in the Saints’ 13 playoff games and has cashed in 11 of their last 16 games played in January.
NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND OVER/UNDER PREDICTION: SAINTS/VIKINGS OVER 46.5