Patriots vs. Dolphins Week 2 Prediction
The dreadful Dolphins will host Tom Brady and the Patriots on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET in what is sure to be their second loss of the season. That said, listed as a historic home underdog, will Miami at least keep it respectable versus New England?
269 New England Patriots (-19) at 270 Miami Dolphins (+19); O/U 47.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 15, 2019
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Patriots are receiving 58% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
New England Patriots Fantasy Spin
Patriots coach Bill Belichick said Antonio Brown has a “long way to go” in learning the team’s offense. When asked if Brown would play Sunday against the Dolphins, Belichick deadpanned, “We’ll do what’s best for the team.” The long-time coach said Brown has “worked hard” since joining the Patriots this week but noted that New England’s offense bears little resemblance to the ones he left behind in Pittsburgh and Oakland. Brown has (at least to this point) avoided punishment in the wake of recent sexual assault allegations, though it sounds like he’s not grasping the offense as quickly as the Patriots had hoped. Of course, gleaning meaning from anything Belichick—who has made a career out of stonewalling reporters—says is probably a fool’s errand. AB comes in at No. 13 in RotoPat’s Week 2 receiver rankings.
Miami Dolphins Fantasy Spin
Dolphins coach Brian Flores confirmed DB Minkah Fitzpatrick will play against the Patriots in Week 2. The Dolphins have given Fitzpatrick permission to seek a trade, though in the meantime, he’ll continue playing. “He’s got a big role in the game,” said Flores when asked of his plans for Fitzpatrick Sunday against New England. “I expect him to play well.” The Fins are reportedly seeking a first-rounder for Fitzpatrick, though that may be excessive for a player who hasn’t shown much early in his career.
NFL Betting Trends
The Patriots are 24-5-1 against the spread in their last 30 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous contest.
The Dolphins are 0-4 against the number in their last four games overall and are 12-26-1 ATS in their last 39 games coming off an ATS loss.
The Patriots are just 1-6 against the number in their last seven trips to Miami and the home team is 14-3 against the spread in the last 17 meetings. This is just too many points for an NFL game. Sure, the Dolphins are tanking and sure, the Patriots are coming off a dominating performance last Sunday night at home versus the Steelers. But this is the ultimate letdown spot for a New England team that hasn’t always played its best ball in Miami over the years. When the Pats grab a 21-0 first quarter lead I’ll be kicking myself for this selection, but this is a principle play for me. Giving 19 points to a home team in the NFL is ridiculous.
NFL Week 2 Prediction: Miami Dolphins +19