Texans vs. Saints NFL Week 1 Prediction
The first of two Monday Night Football double-headers takes place in New Orleans tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET when the Saints host the Texans. With the total sitting in the low-50s, is the over a good bet or is the line inflated?
7:10 p.m. Et, Monday, September 9, 2019
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Saints are receiving 59% of the betting tickets as a 6.5-point home favorite versus the Texans.
Houston Texans Fantasy Spin
Texans WR Keke Coutee (ankle) is questionable for the team’s Monday night matchup against the Saints. Even if Coutee is ultimately able to suit up, he’s a thin fantasy play with heightened potential for reduced snaps. He also doesn’t have the easiest projected matchup in the slot against Patrick Robinson. Look for DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller to get the bulk of Deshaun Watson’s attention in their respective shadow matchups against Marshon Lattimore and Eli Apple.
New Orleans Saints Fantasy Spin
Saints acquired LB Kiko Alonso from the Dolphins in exchange for LB Vince Biegel. Biegel has 14 career tackles to his name, essentially making this a straight salary dump. Miami’s roster purge continues with Alonso following Kenny Stills and Laremy Tunsil out the door. Alonso’s departure comes as no surprise as the veteran linebacker reportedly cleaned out his locker in anticipation of being dealt this weekend. The 2013 second-rounder is still a starter-level talent, though he’s coming off a down year (dead-last in PFF’s 4-3 outside linebacker grades) and wouldn’t have been an every-down player in Brian Flores’ new scheme. The rebuilding Fins appear to be following the same tanking blueprint as the long-suffering Browns, who seem to have finally turned a corner after years of stockpiling picks and clearing cap space. It’s not the worst strategy, though Miami will obviously be a tough watch this year.
The under is 4-1 in the Texans’ last five games played in Week 1 and is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games played in the month of September.
New Orleans Trends
The over is 5-0 in the Saints’ last five games played in Week 1 and is 4-1 in their last five matchups on Monday night.
Both teams offer a lot of firepower and while the defenses aren’t bad on either side, there’s too much offense not to take the over. Drew Brees struggled at the end of last season and didn’t improve much in the Saints’ two playoff games but he had an entire offseason to rest and he’s usually sharp at home. In fact, Sean Payton’s offense is often much more explosive at home than on the road. On the other side, the Texans feel as though they shored up their one big weakness, which was protecting DeShaun Watson. After acquiring Laremey Tunsil from the Dolphins for multiple first-round picks, if Watson has more blindside protection that should mean big things for him, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller in the passing game.
NFL Week 1 Prediction: Texans/Saints OVER 52.5