Is the total in Sunday’s Dolphins vs. Commanders matchup set too high? Kickoff for this non-conference matchup from FedExField is set for 1:00 p.m. ET.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
463 Miami Dolphins (-9.5) at 464 Washington Commanders (+9.5); o/u 49.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 3, 2023
FedExField, Landover, MD
TV: FOX
Dolphins vs. Commanders Public Betting Information
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 64% of public bettors are currently backing the Dolphins when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Miami Dolphins DFS Spin
Tyreek Hill (ankle) was removed from the Dolphins’ Week 13 injury report against the Commanders. Hill was a DNP to start the week but practiced in a limited capacity each of the last two days. He doesn’t carry a game status heading into the weekend, and will be on the high-end WR1 radar against a Commanders defense that ranks among the worst in the league.
Washington Commanders DFS Spin
Commanders fired DC Jack Del Rio. Del Rio was on a short leash heading into Thursday’s prime time matchup. A blowout loss to the Bears in Week 5, plus two losses to a three-win Giants team, which included a Week 11 loss to Tommy DeVito, left little hope of Del Rio sticking out the season. The Thanksgiving Day beat down against the Cowboys was simply the final straw.
In what is sure to be one of several coaching changes in Washington over the next few months, Del Rio’s firing is the first domino to fall, as head coach Ron Rivera will now take over defensive play calling duties. The Commanders ranked as a top-10 unit in several defensive categories last season, but are now allowing the most points per game (29.2) and the fourth most yards per game (377.7). They’ve become the “get right” defense for every opposing quarterback and fantasy manager this season. While we’d expect that to continue, whatever happens from here on out will take place with Rivera calling the plays. In addition to Del Rio, the Commanders also fired defensive backs coach Brent Vieselmeyer.
Dolphins vs. Commanders Betting Trends
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami’s last 7 games when playing Washington
Miami is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington’s last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington’s last 5 games
Dolphins vs. Commanders Prediction:
Take the under. We know Miami can put 30 on the board against any team in the league. That said, even if the Dolphins give us 30-plus today, will the Commanders take care of the rest? Sam Howell leads the NFL in competitions and passing yards, but he’s also been sacked four-plus times in nine games this season. That’s the third most since the QB/team sacks stat was first tracked in 1963. Miami owns the third-most sacks in the NFL this season at 38, so we can expect Howell to hit the turf plenty again today.
Sacks are drive-killers. Thus, even if the Commanders move the ball at times and even if the Dolphins score plenty, will Washington convert enough of its trips to the red zone into touchdowns? I have my doubts.
Dolphins vs. Commanders NFL Prediction: UNDER 49.5