Broncos vs. Chiefs Spread Prediction
The Kansas City Chiefs will put their undefeated record on the line Monday night when they visit their AFC West rivals the Denver Broncos at 8:15 p.m. ET. Will the Chiefs cover for a fourth consecutive week?
8:15 p.m. ET, Monday, October 1
Broncos Stadium at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites to beat the Chiefs. The total, meanwhile, sits at 54.5 points. As of this writing, 62% of the public betting tickets are on the Chiefs to cover the point spread.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes completed 24-of-38 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns in the Chiefs’ Week 3 win over the 49ers. The three scores give Mahomes the record for most touchdown passes (13) in the first three games of a season, and he could have had more. He missed a couple throws in the first half including what should have been a touchdown to Tyreek Hill, and the Chiefs attempted just 13 passes in the second half of the easy win. Leading what looks like an unstoppable offense, blowouts might be the only thing which can stop Mahomes from putting up massive fantasy days. A trip to Denver next Monday night might look daunting, but the Broncos’ defense has struggled a bit early in the season. Mahomes will be the top overall quarterback next week.
Case Keenum completed 22-of-34 passes for 192 yards, zero touchdowns, and an interception in the Broncos’ Week 3 loss to the Ravens. Keenum was not good in this one. Consistently settling for the short pass amid pressure, Keenum had just 104 yards heading into the fourth quarter. After two touchdowns to open the game — one set up by a blocked punt — the Broncos punted seven straight times. The next play ended when Keenum was picked off on second-and-goal from the 15, and the final drive ended on fourth down deep in Baltimore territory. The good news is Keenum will get to face the Chiefs’ defense at home next Monday night.
NFL Betting Trends
The Chiefs have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games overall and are 4-1 ATS in their last five appearances on Monday night.
The Broncos are 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven home games and are 0-5 ATS in their last five divisional matchups.
I’d love to fade the public tonight and back the home dog but I’m buying the hook and backing the Chiefs for another week. The Broncos are banged-up, with cornerbacks Adam Jones (thigh) and Tramaine Brock (groin) dealing with injuries, as are linebacker Brandon Marshall (knee), defensive tackle Shelby Harris (ankle) and safety Dymonte Thomas (abdominal). None of those players had a full week of practice.
Of course, Kansas City’s defense isn’t good and will be without safety Eric Berry again. But this offense is too good to be held in check for a full four quarters. Granted, it’s tough to win in Denver but the Broncos’ secondary isn’t what it used to be over the past four seasons and if the Chiefs can keep Von Miller off Mahomes, I see Kansas City’s winning by at least a field goal.
NFL Week 4 Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -3 (buy hook)