Following an embarrassing home loss to the Bears last Thursday night, are the Commanders a good bet to rebound on Sunday? Check out betting odds, trends and our Commanders vs. Falcons prediction ahead.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
253 Washington Commanders (+1.5) at 254 Atlanta Falcons (-1.5); o/u 42.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 15, 2023
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Commanders vs. Falcons Public Betting Information
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 54% of public bettors are currently backing the Falcons when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Washington Commanders DFS Spin
Commanders HC Ron Rivera said the team does not plan to make any changes to the coaching staff after Week 5’s loss to the Bears. Rivera wouldn’t fire himself, but defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio’s job is in question too after his defense allowed 40 points to the once 0-4 Bears. The Commanders have given up 30 or more points in three of four games this season. They were left looking for answers while Justin Fields and the Bears ran through, over, and around their defense on their way to 451 total yards at 7.0 yards per play.
First-round corner Emmanuel Forbes has allowed the most receiving yards of any corner in the league this season, and free agent signee Cody Barton is the worst graded linebacker per PFF. These only highlight a few of the Commanders’ issues but change could be coming if the team flops again in Week 6 against the Falcons.
Atlanta Falcons DFS Spin
Jonnu Smith was removed from the Falcons’ injury report and will play in Week 6 against the Commanders. The Falcons’ true TE1 is back and ready for action. A limited practice on Wednesday was chased by back-to-back full practices to close out the week, putting Smith in line for Week 6’s tilt with the Commanders.
Based on what we’ve seen over the last two weeks, fantasy managers in need of help at tight end can lean on Smith, who has caught 12-of-18 targets for 162 yards over the last two weeks. If he sees anything close to the volume he has of late, Smith will have TE1 potential against a Commanders defense that has been torched through the air all season.
Commanders vs. Falcons Betting Trends
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Commanders vs. Falcons Prediction:
Take Washington. Commanders QB Sam Howell has been sacked a NFL-high 29 times this season. That said, the Falcons don’t have a pass rush. Don’t expect Atlanta to take advantage of this weakness for Washington.
On the other side of the ball, the key to stopping the Falcons is containing their rushing attack. The Lions and Jaguars accomplished the feat and they produced blowout victories over Atlanta. Despite what Desmond Ridder showed last week in the team’s come-from-behind victory over Houston, he’s still a massive liability.
Commanders vs. Falcons NFL Prediction: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +100