The Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers meet at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday with both teams at 2-2 and the market close to a coin flip. Pittsburgh is a 3-point home favorite, and that number has climbed from where it opened even though most tickets have landed on Indianapolis. The gap between where the public money sits and where the line actually moved is the most revealing thing about this game, and it points us toward one side.
Last Updated: Sunday, October 11, 2026
Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh PA |
| When | Sunday, October 11 – 1:00 PM ET |
| TV | CBS |
Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview
Indianapolis sits second in the AFC South after a 30-13 win over Washington in London. The Colts lost to Baltimore and Kansas City to open the year, then edged Houston 19-17. Scoring is not the problem. Indianapolis averages 25.5 points per game, 13th in the league. The defense is. The Colts rank 30th in total yards allowed and concede 26.0 points per game.
Daniel Jones has started all four games with uneven results. He has completed 63.6 percent of his throws for 754 yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions, a 73.9 passer rating. Last week he managed only 143 passing yards in a comfortable win. Jonathan Taylor carried that offense instead, and he now has 353 rushing yards and six scores at 4.1 per carry.
Pittsburgh is also 2-2 but third in a crowded AFC North. Mike McCarthy’s team beat Atlanta and Cincinnati at home, then lost at New England and fell 27-24 at Cleveland on a Thursday night. The Steelers average just 19.3 points per game, 24th overall. At home they have been far better, scoring 25 per game across two wins.
Aaron Rodgers has started every game in what he says is his final season, completing 57.5 percent of his passes for 999 yards with seven touchdowns, four interceptions and 13 sacks taken. The injury news hurts. Pittsburgh ruled out leading receiver Michael Pittman Jr., safety DeShon Elliott and cornerback Jamel Dean on the official Week 5 injury report, with Jalen Ramsey and Rico Dowdle questionable. Indianapolis is missing Jaylon Carlies, Arden Key, Will Mallory and Ashton Dulin, while Keenan Allen and Darius Slayton are questionable.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | +3 (-120) | +130 | O 43.5 (-115) |
| Steelers | -3 (+100) | -150 | U 43.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, October 11, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Colts | 64% | 36% | Steelers |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Colts vs. Steelers Prediction — Can the Home Favorite Hold a Key Number?
This line opened at Pittsburgh -2.5 and has since reached -3, while the moneyline stiffened from -135 to -150. That is movement toward the Steelers. Yet 64 percent of spread tickets sit on Indianapolis. When a number moves against the clear majority of bets, the heavier wagers are usually arriving on the quieter side. That divergence is the opposite of what you would expect if the Colts were the sharper play.
The schedule reinforces it. Pittsburgh last played Thursday, October 1, giving the Steelers ten days to prepare. Indianapolis played in London on October 4, then flew home and turned around for another road game inside a week. Teams in that spot fight the calendar as much as the opponent. The Colts also have not generated the pass rush to trouble a quarterback, which hands Rodgers a cleaner pocket than he had in Cleveland.
The case against Pittsburgh is easy to make. The Steelers rank 24th in scoring and have lost their most productive receiver. Two defensive backs are out and Ramsey may follow. Indianapolis averages six more points per game and has Taylor behind a line that controlled the Commanders. Asking a team that has not topped 30 points to win by more than a field goal carries real risk. At even money, though, the price asks little back.
The Pick: Steelers -3 (+100)
Colts vs. Steelers Prediction — Does a Thin Passing Attack Keep This Low?
The total opened at 44 and has ticked down to 43.5, another quiet signal. Pittsburgh’s offense is what holds this number down. The Steelers score 19.3 per game and now play without Pittman, thinning an attack already built on short, efficient throws. Rodgers has absorbed 13 sacks in four games, and drives that fall behind schedule end in punts. Our recent look at a similar sub-44 total followed much the same logic.
The other side has support. Indianapolis ranks 30th in total defense, and the Colts have cleared 40 combined points in three of four games. The counterweight is that Jones has been inefficient rather than aggressive. He averages just 5.7 yards per attempt and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. That profile stalls drives in field-goal range instead of trading touchdowns.
The Pick: Under 43.5 (-105)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The spread resting exactly on three deserves attention. A push is a live outcome on that number, and the pricing reflects it. Indianapolis at +3 costs -120 while Pittsburgh at -3 pays even money. Bettors who like the Steelers but want no part of a late field goal forcing a tie can take the moneyline instead. That removes the push. The trade-off is a worse price, and it loses outright if Indianapolis wins by any margin.
The Bonus Angle: Steelers Moneyline (-150)
This profiles as a field-position grind between two flawed 2-2 teams, and the rested home side facing a soft pass rush is the one we would rather hold. The Colts own the better offensive numbers, so this is not a one-sided read. For more of the weekend card, see our latest NFL picks coverage. Our full card here: Steelers -3 (+100), Under 43.5 (-105), and Steelers moneyline (-150) as the bonus angle.
NFL Colts vs. Steelers FAQ: Sunday October 11, 2026
What time does the Colts vs. Steelers game start?
The Colts and Steelers kick off at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 11, 2026, at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. It is one of the early-window games on the Week 5 schedule. Indianapolis radio pregame coverage begins at 10:00 AM ET.
What channel is the Colts vs. Steelers game on?
The game airs on CBS as a regional broadcast, so availability depends on your local market. Jim Nantz calls the action with J.J. Watt as analyst and Tracy Wolfson on the sideline. That is the network’s lead crew for the early window.
Where are the Colts and Steelers playing?
The game is at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the Steelers’ home venue, with Indianapolis as the road team. The stadium holds roughly 68,400 and sits on Pittsburgh’s North Shore along the Ohio River.
Who won the last meeting between the Colts and Steelers?
Pittsburgh won the most recent meeting 27-20 on November 2, 2025, also at home. Indianapolis had taken the previous matchup 27-24 in September 2024. The Steelers hold a clear edge in the all-time series between the two franchises.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Colts and Steelers?
Daniel Jones starts for Indianapolis and Aaron Rodgers starts for Pittsburgh. Both have taken every start for their teams through four games. Rodgers has said this is his final NFL season, and he has thrown for 999 yards with seven touchdowns.