The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Saturday night at Raymond James Stadium, and the betting market has already written the headline for this preseason meeting. What opened as a Kansas City favorite has flipped the other way. Tampa Bay now sits as a five-point home favorite, mostly because Patrick Mahomes will watch from the sideline while Baker Mayfield and the Bucs starters take the field. That swing created real value, and the read here centers on which quarterback room holds up longest.
Last Updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa FL |
| When | Saturday, August 22 – 7:30 PM ET |
| TV | WFLA (Tampa), local Kansas City stations; stream on NFL+ |
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview
Kansas City arrives at 0-1 in the preseason after a 20-12 loss to the Rams at Arrowhead, a game Justin Fields started. The bigger news is who will not play. Mahomes sits out the entire night as he recovers from offseason knee surgery, with the staff protecting him for the Week 1 opener. Head coach Andy Reid has laid out the plan clearly: Fields starts and plays into the second quarter, rookie Garrett Nussmeier follows with a similar workload, and Chris Oladokun closes the fourth.
That gives the Chiefs an unusually strong hand for a backup-heavy exhibition. Fields is a former first-round pick who joined Kansas City this offseason and has starting experience in the league. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is 1-0 after a 24-16 win over the Jets. This is the Buccaneers’ only home preseason game, so Todd Bowles will start Baker Mayfield. However, expect a short cameo of roughly 12 to 15 plays before the reserves take over the rest of the evening.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | +5 (-105) | +195 | U 37 (-110) |
| Buccaneers | -5 (-115) | -235 | O 37 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of August 22, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Chiefs | 75% | 25% | Buccaneers |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Prediction — Who Holds the Quarterback Edge?
The line move is the whole story. Kansas City opened as a 1.5-point favorite. Once Mahomes was ruled out and Tampa Bay confirmed its starters would play, the number swung 6.5 points to Buccaneers -5. There is a second layer worth noting. Roughly three-quarters of spread bets sit on the Chiefs taking the points, yet the line still moved toward Tampa Bay. That kind of reverse move usually points to sharper money backing the home side.
The case for Tampa Bay is clean. The Bucs are at home, Mayfield and the first-team units open against Kansas City’s backups, and the team already looked sharp in a Week 1 win. Score early and the starters can hand the reserves a cushion. Still, there is a strong counter. This game will be decided mostly by reserves, and few teams are better stocked there right now. Fields is a starting-caliber quarterback playing into the second quarter, and Nussmeier follows with a similar run.
Mayfield, in contrast, exits after a dozen-plus snaps and hands the night to Tampa’s depth. Five points is a wide number in a game where the side getting points also has the more accomplished passer on the field far longer. Both benches empty quickly, so variance runs high and a single special-teams play can swing the cover. The points and the quarterback edge line up on the same side, though.
The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +5 (-105)
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Prediction — Will the Reserves Reach the Total?
The total sits at 37, nudged up from an open of 36.5. Preseason numbers stay low for a reason. Starters play sparingly, play-calling stays vanilla, and second-half possessions belong to roster hopefuls who tend to stall drives. The upside for the Over is clear enough. Fields can move the ball through a half, Tampa hung 24 on the Jets last week, and 37 is a modest bar that one or two efficient drives could clear.
The counter leans the other way. Both teams pull their front-liners early, and Kansas City’s opener produced just 32 combined points. Reserve-heavy football bogs down between the 20s, and field goals replace touchdowns once the depth charts thin out. In a game built around backups on both sidelines, the grind is the more reliable expectation.
The Pick: Under 37 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
If you like Kansas City with the points, the moneyline is a live longshot. At +195, the Chiefs pay nearly 2-1 to win outright, and their quarterback depth gives them a genuine path in a game reserves will decide. Keep it a small stake, since preseason moneylines swing on a single backup mistake. For more preseason line reads, see our Packers vs. Broncos prediction and our Jets vs. Steelers best bet.
To recap the card: Chiefs +5 (-105), Under 37 (-110), and a small-stake dart on the Chiefs moneyline at +195. All three lean on the same read. Kansas City’s quarterback room holds up better across four quarters than a Tampa Bay group that empties out once Mayfield’s brief cameo ends.
Bonus: Kansas City Chiefs moneyline +195 (small stake)
NFL Chiefs vs. Buccaneers FAQ: Saturday August 22, 2026
What time does the Chiefs vs. Buccaneers game start?
Kansas City and Tampa Bay kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, August 22, 2026, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. This is the Buccaneers’ only home preseason game of the 2026 slate, and the second exhibition for both clubs.
What channel is the Chiefs vs. Buccaneers game on?
The game airs on local television only, including WFLA in Tampa and local stations in the Kansas City market, with no national broadcast. Fans outside those areas can stream it live on NFL+, and NFL Network will carry a replay afterward.
Where are the Chiefs and Buccaneers playing?
The Chiefs and Buccaneers play at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, Tampa Bay’s home venue. Kansas City travels in as the visiting team for this preseason matchup. It is the lone home exhibition on Tampa Bay’s summer schedule.
Is Patrick Mahomes playing against the Buccaneers?
No. Patrick Mahomes sits out the entire game as he recovers from offseason knee surgery. Head coach Andy Reid ruled him out, with Kansas City prioritizing his availability for the Week 1 regular-season opener. Justin Fields starts in his place at quarterback.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Chiefs and Buccaneers?
Justin Fields starts for Kansas City and is expected to play into the second quarter, followed by rookie Garrett Nussmeier and then Chris Oladokun. Baker Mayfield starts for Tampa Bay but is likely to see only 12 to 15 snaps before the reserves take over.