Chargers vs. Patriots Prediction
Despite losing a key defender for the season, will the Patriots still cover as a touchdown-sized favorite over the Chargers?
Who Oddsmakers Like: New England. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Patriots are 7-point home favorites versus the Chargers, who opened as 6.5-point underdogs earlier in the week. As for the total, the number hit the board at 49 but was bet down a full point to 48 at the majority of online sportsbooks.
Who the Public Likes: New England. As of this writing, the Patriots are receiving 61% of the public backing for this conference matchup. New England is 5-2 on the season but just 3-4 against the spread, while Los Angeles is 3-4 straight up and 3-3 at the betting window, winning three in a row entering Sunday.
Who the Trends Like: New England. The Chargers are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games versus the Patriots. That said, they’re 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games played in October and 12-4-1 against the number in their last 17 games overall. The Patriots, meanwhile, are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games versus a team with a losing record.
Who We Like: New England. Losing Dont’a Hightower was a significant blow to a Patriots defense that has struggled all year. Despite holding the Falcons to a late touchdown last week, I don’t think New England’s defense is suddenly fixed. Matt Ryan missed several key throws that could have led to points and Atlanta was in the red zone all night, it just couldn’t convert.
That said, I do think a lot of the communication problems that plagued the Pats early in the year have been ironed out. You’re not seeing receivers run free in New England’s secondary any more. The Chargers are hot, winning three in a row, but they’re flying cross-country to take on a Patriots team that might start firing on all cylinders. If my timing is right on the Pats, Tom Brady and Co. should cruise today.
NFL WEEK 8 PREDICTIONS: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -7