Falcons vs. Texans Total Prediction
The struggling Falcons hit the road in Week 5 when they visit the Texans at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday. With the total sitting at 50 points, what’s the best play for bettors when it comes to the over/under?
467 Atlanta Falcons (+4) at 468 Houston Texans (-4); O/U 50
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 6, 2019
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Texans are receiving 57% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Spin
Matt Ryan completed 35-of-53 passes for 397 yards in Atlanta’s Week 4 loss to the Titans. Throw out the box score. The Falcons found themselves in an early 24-7 hole heading into the locker room, which paved the way for Ryan to pepper Austin Hooper (9/130) and Mohamed Sanu (9/91) for an entire half’s worth of garbage time. It wasn’t all the defense’s fault as the Falcons did lose both Alex Mack (elbow) and Jamon Brown (concussion) for a number of series, but Desmond Trufant and Isaiah Oliver got dog-walked early enough to force Ryan into a terrible situation under center, allowing him to eclipse the 300-yard barrier for the fourth time in as many games. Although the offense appeared lifeless Sunday, Ryan proved he’ll have no issues posting fantasy production no matter the game script. He’ll be a low-end QB1 in Week 5 against the Texans.
Houston Texans Fantasy Spin
Deshaun Watson completed 21-of-33 passes for 160 yards, zero touchdowns and zero interceptions in the Texans’ 16-10, Week 4 loss to the Panthers. Watson struggled to find a consistent rhythm all afternoon and was sacked six times. The Texans offense largely relied on the run game and short-to-intermediate passes for most of the game. Watson badly missed wide-open WRs on pretty much his only two shot plays. Both Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins had realistic opportunities to convert those targets into scores with better throws. Watson managed to somewhat salvage his day from a fantasy perspective with a short touchdown run from the one-yard line. Luckily, the Texans are in a prime get-right spot at home against the Falcons in Week 5.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 10-2 in the Falcons’ last 12 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
The under is 5-1 in the Texans’ last six games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
I don’t trust these offenses enough to play the over on Sunday. Neither offensive line has done a good job protecting their quarterbacks and there have been a handful of times when the Falcons drive into the red zone, only for Matt Ryan to turn the ball over. Atlanta’s defense, meanwhile, has not played well to date but Houston should keep the scoring down on its end. The under is 6-0 in the Texans’ last six home games and has cashed in five of their last six games overall.
NFL Week 5 Prediction: Falcons/Texans UNDER 50