Kansas City Chiefs Win Total Prediction
The reigning Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs are the odds-on favorites to bring home the Lombardi Trophy again in 2023-2024. Can Kansas City win enough games in the regular season to cash the over?
Kansas City Chiefs Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 11.5 -130
Under 11.5 +110
2022 Season Recap
The 2022 Kansas City Chiefs were the best team in football all season and proved it every step of the way. Kansas City went 14-3 in the regular season, secured the top seed in the AFC, and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. From there, the Chiefs won home playoff games against the Jaguars and Bengals, making it to Super Bowl LVII where they defeated the Philadelphia Eagles in a shootout, 38-35 to bring home the Lombardi Trophy for the second time in four years. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes won the regular season MVP and Super Bowl MVP awards, cementing his presence as the clear-cut best quarterback in the NFL. Mahomes put up big numbers as he threw for 5,250 yards, 41 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He also ran for 358 yards and 4 touchdowns. Kansas City was first in the NFL in yards per play and fourth in the NFL with a point differential of +127. Many often say that the champs are still the champs until someone takes the belt from them, and that saying rings especially true with this year’s Kansas City Chiefs.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: OT Orlando Brown, WR Juju Smith-Schuster, WR Mecole Hardman, EDGE Frank Clark
Key Player Additions: OT Jawaan Taylor, RB Jerick McKinnon, WR Richie James, EDGE Felix
Anudike-Uzomah (1st round pick), WR Rashee Rice (2nd round pick)
2023 Season Outlook
The Chiefs traded speedy wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins last offseason, and the offense didn’t skip a beat. That speaks to the greatness of Patrick Mahomes and the offensive ingenuity of head coach Andy Reid. The losses of wideouts Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman would usually hamper most offenses, but the Chiefs still have one the best receiving tight ends of all time in Travis Kelce. Wide receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore will be more comfortable in the Chiefs’ offense in their sophomore years with the club. New additions Richie James and Rashee Rice should also make significant impacts at the wide receiver spots early on. The loss of offensive tackle Orlando Brown is not ideal, but Jawaan Taylor should be a worthy replacement. Kansas City’s offense should continue to hum in 2023.
The Chiefs made a wise money-saving decision in cutting edge rusher Frank Clark. Clark’s cap hit would have been $28.6 million this season, and that was too much to stomach for Clark’s middling production as he only recorded 15.5 sacks over 3 seasons. Kansas City added pass rushers Charles Omenihu in free agency, Kansas State’s Felix Anudike-Uzomah, and Stephen F. Austin’s B.J. Thompson through the draft. That trio should come close to matching Clark’s pass-rushing production off the edge. The Chiefs’ secondary should be average at worst as they only lost safety Juan Thornhill in free agency while adding Virginia Tech safety Chamarri Conner in the fourth round and Ball State cornerback Nic Jones in the seventh round. Opponents were only able to gain 6.1 yards per pass attempt against the KC D last year, a figure that ranked sixth in the league. Kansas City has a tried-and-true formula of taking an early lead and then pressuring the quarterback when other teams are forced to pass. It’s worked for the past four years and should work again this year.
Key Coaching Departures: Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, RB/WR coach Greg Lewis
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy (promoted from QBs coach), running backs coach Todd Pinkston, David Girardi quarterbacks coach
Much has been made about former Chiefs’ offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and his multiple attempts to land a head coaching gig. He elected to leave Kansas City to become an associate head coach/offensive coordinator with the Washington Commanders this offseason. I don’t think the Chiefs will miss him all that much. It’s my belief that Bieniemy has struggled to land a head coaching job because teams were able to determine that the success of the Chiefs’ offense is largely due to Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, not Eric Bieniemy. Greg Lewis played wide receiver for Andy Reid during his stint as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles and he coached Kansas City wide receivers from 2017-2020 and Chiefs running backs from 2021-2022. Both of those position groups were strengths for the Chiefs the past few years, so it remains to be seen how much Kansas City will feel Lewis’s absence as slides into his new job as wide receivers coach with the Baltimore Ravens.
For the Chiefs, Matt Nagy gets a promotion and resumes his position as the team’s offensive coordinator. Nagy was previously the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator in 2016-2017 before an ill-fated stint as the head coach of the Chicago Bears. Nagy seems like a coach who is an above-average coordinator, but a below-average head coach. He should have no trouble keeping the momentum rolling with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes heading up the best offense in the NFL. Todd Pinkston is another former Eagles wide receiver that played for Andy Reid and he’s curiously coaching running backs despite playing wide receiver in the NFL. That ploy worked with Greg Lewis and it may work for Pinkston, who’s coming off of a stint as wide receivers coach at Austin Peay.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
There are few sure things in life. Death, taxes, and the Kansas City Chiefs offense lighting up the NFL. Since becoming the starter in 2018, Patrick Mahomes has gone 12-4, 11-3, 14-1, 12-5, and 14-3 in the regular season. The win total is 11.5 and the Chiefs have won at least 12 games in 5 straight seasons. Mahomes has flat-out dominated the AFC West as he’s 27-3 in his career against division foes. The AFC West might be down a bit this year as the Broncos are trying to salvage Russell Wilson’s career and the Las Vegas Raiders will be trotting out an injury-prone Jimmy Garoppolo as their day-one starter.
The schedule also breaks favorably for Kansas City this season. They get some of their toughest non-divisional opponents in Detroit, Miami, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Cincinnati all at home. Kansas City’s toughest non-divisional road games are at Jacksonville, at the New York Jets, and at Minnesota. All of those take place in the first 5 weeks of the season, so you should have a good idea if the Chiefs are going to go over the total by then, affording you a potential hedge opportunity. The formula seems pretty simple. When you combine Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and a relatively favorable schedule, you get an AFC West division crown and 12 wins or more. There may come a day when the Chiefs aren’t the de facto favorites in the AFC and the entire league, but I’ll believe it when I see it. I like the Chiefs to win the division and hit the over.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS OVER 11.5 WINS -130