The Sun Belt Conference Championship Game offers a big spread – but is it too big? With a chance to potentially play in the college football playoff, James Madison will take on Troy Friday night at 7:00 p.m. ET. This one has the makings of a big gap between public perception and real-game dynamics: defensive mismatches, turnover profiles and situational coaching decisions could shrink the expected margin. If you’re shopping Championship Week numbers, Troy at James Madison Picks should be on your radar for a serious look at the plus-money side of this spread.
Troy vs. James Madison — Game Day Information
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Date: Friday, December 5, 2025.
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Kickoff (ET): 7:00 PM ET.
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Venue: Bridgeforth Stadium / Zane Showker Field — Harrisonburg, Virginia (James Madison home site).
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TV / Streaming: ESPN (national broadcast; streaming via WatchESPN / ESPN App).
Troy vs. James Madison Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | ML |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy | +23.5 | 47 | +1300 |
| James Madison | -23.5 | 47 | -2778 |
Who Is The Public Betting
| Team | % of Bets | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy | 25% | +1.5 | -2.5 |
| James Madison | 75% | -1.5 | +2.5 |
Numbers update frequently — check the latest splits on our college football public betting chart before placing any bets.
Troy vs. James Madison Injury Report
Troy enters the title game with several linemen and a defensive lineman listed out. Three Troy players (including offensive guards E. Prather and G. Langlo, plus DL C. Fua’au) were reported as out on Dec. 2, which could reduce Troy’s depth on the interior and complicate short-yardage downs. That said, Troy’s primary skill players are not listed with season-ending flags on the matchup board, so the Trojans still have the offensive tools to keep drives alive and pick up chunks through the air when needed.
James Madison’s ledger shows a handful of questionable tags and a few listed as out at linebacker and along the DL — names like Immanuel Bush (DL) were listed questionable, while linebackers Brandon Fique and L. Johnson were shown as out in the Dec. 2 update. There are also probable tags for guys such as WR Landon Ellis and LB Gannon Weathersby, indicating JMU likely has most of its core offensive weapons available but could be a bit thinned in depth on the second level of the defense. Those injury notes matter for game-script projection: fewer rotation bodies for JMU’s linebacking corps could make them more vulnerable to sustained Trojan drives late in the game if depth becomes an issue.
Troy vs. James Madison Picks
Pick: Troy +23.5
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Scoreboard management and tempo advantage. James Madison’s dominant season bankrolls them a comfortable lead scenario, but when a heavily favored home team tries to protect a big lead, they often run clock-heavy drives that minimize possessions for the underdog. That actually helps the underdog cover large spreads: fewer possessions mean each score has outsized importance and teams like Troy — who have shown the ability to produce chunk plays in short windows — can tack on late garbage-time scoring and narrow the margin. JMU’s offensive efficiency (big yardage, strong red-zone conversion) works for them, but it also encourages clock-eating drives rather than quick, insurmountable scoring bursts early.
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Injury depth and situational vulnerability. JMU’s injury tags at LB and DL (questionable/out) could hurt their ability to rotate and sustain rush defense across four quarters. If James Madison loses rotational defenders or sees starters limited, Troy’s offensive plan to mix runs with timely passing could find seams late — not necessarily enough to win outright, but plenty to cut into a 23.5-point chalk. Conversely, Troy’s interior OL outs are meaningful, but the Trojans have shown in wins this season they can manufacture timely explosive plays without needing to dominate the line every snap.
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Historical and situational precedent. Conference championship blowouts at the Group-of-5 level sometimes underdeliver relative to large lines because the favorites protect leads and the underdogs gamble on higher-variance plays late. A +23.5 market assumes consistent scoring by JMU throughout and an inability for Troy to produce any late offense — that’s a low-probability scenario given Troy’s tendency to produce chunk plays on fewer drives.
Projected final score: James Madison 34 — Troy 14
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