Our Texas vs Missouri prediction comes with a market that has barely budged on the side and moved hard on the total. Texas is a 2.5-point road favorite at Memorial Stadium, and the total has slid from 44 to 42 since the opener. Both teams sit at 6-2 with 3-2 SEC records, so this is a high-stakes spot in the SEC race. However, the Texas injury report has reshaped how this matchup sets up. Below, we break down the quarterback picture, the line movement and the two plays we like best.
College Football Week 10 Texas vs. Missouri — Game Time & How to Watch
| Where | Memorial Stadium (Faurot Field), Columbia Missouri |
| When | November 7 – 12:00 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Texas vs. Missouri Betting Preview
The quarterback matchup decides this game, and the story is less about the passers than about who surrounds them. Arch Manning starts for Texas, but his supporting cast is thin. Left tackle Trevor Goosby is out for the season, and running back Hollywood Smothers and tight end Nick Townsend are also out. Receivers Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo are both listed as questionable, and the Texas availability report lists seven starters. Coleman has not practiced this week. Meanwhile, the Texas line has struggled badly in pass protection all season.
Missouri starts transfer quarterback Austin Simmons and arrives far healthier. Its only absences are three players already lost for the season. Missouri leans on a ground game that averages more than 165 rushing yards per game, led by Jamal Roberts. In contrast, Texas runs for fewer than 140 yards per game. Still, the Texas defense is the best unit on the field. It allows 17.1 points per game, while Missouri allows 18.4.
The Texas defense has its own health questions, however. Edge rusher Colin Simmons is questionable with an ankle injury and could be a game-time decision. Nickel back Graceson Littleton and cornerback Kade Phillips are also questionable. That matters against a Missouri passing game that averages more than 250 yards per game. On the other hand, the Texas run defense has been stout, and it held opponents under 100 rushing yards five times this season. If that front holds up again, Missouri will need Austin Simmons to win the game through the air.
Both teams enter off wins. Texas beat Mississippi State 31-3, and Missouri won 34-10 at Arkansas. The resumes differ in shape, though. Texas owns wins over Tennessee, Ole Miss and Ohio State, but lost to Oklahoma and Florida. Missouri crushed Florida 45-17 at home, but lost 31-3 at Ole Miss. The committee placed Texas No. 7 and Missouri No. 18 in the first College Football Playoff rankings. These programs have not met since Texas won the 2017 Texas Bowl 33-16.
Texas vs. Missouri Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | -2.5 (-120) | -140 | O 42.0 (-112) |
| Missouri | 2.5 (+100) | +120 | U 42.0 (-108) |
Odds accurate as of November 7, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Texas vs. Missouri — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Texas | 65% | 35% | Missouri |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Texas vs. Missouri Prediction — What Is a Two-Point Drop From the Opener Saying?
The total opened at 44 and now sits at 42. That is a meaningful move for a number this low. It also lines up with what the research says. Texas has an offense that is losing pieces by the week. With Goosby gone, Smothers out and both top receivers banged up, Texas may struggle to sustain drives. A Texas offense that already runs for fewer than 140 yards per game has few easy answers if the passing game shrinks. Coleman leads the team with seven touchdown catches, so his status alone could swing the Texas scoring outlook.
The other side of the ball supports the same read. Texas allows 17.1 points per game, and Missouri allows 18.4. Both defenses can make this a field-position game. Moreover, Missouri wants to run the ball, which shortens possessions and drains the clock. The trends point in the same direction too. Only three of Missouri’s eight games and four of Texas’s eight have gone over this season, per published betting records.
There is a real case against this play. Both offenses average more than 30 points per game, so 42 is not a generous number. One defensive score or a short field off a turnover can flip it quickly. Also, the value at 44 is gone, and the price here implies a 51.9% break-even. Still, the thesis, the defensive profiles and the market move all agree. That makes this our strongest read.
The Pick: Under 42.0 (-108)
Texas vs. Missouri Prediction — How Much Do Seven Texas Starters on the Injury Report Matter?
The spread has held at 2.5 all week, even as the Texas injury list grew. Texas did tick from -117 to -120, with 65% of spread tickets on Texas. That small move runs with the public, so it carries little signal on its own. Meanwhile, Missouri is the healthier, more complete roster at home. Texas is also 3-5 against the spread this season, while Missouri sits at 4-4, per published betting records.
The risk is clear, however. Three is the most common margin in college football, and a Texas win by exactly three loses this ticket. The Texas defense is also good enough to win a low-scoring game on its own. Note that this play and the Under rest on the same input, the depleted Texas offense, so they are not independent. Even so, an even-money price on a healthy home team getting points is a fair number. At +100, the break-even rate is 50%, which leaves room for value if Missouri is closer to a coin flip than the spread suggests.
The matchup details lean the same way. Missouri averages 31.5 points per game to 30.8 for Texas, so the offenses are close on paper. However, the Texas number was built with a full receiving corps and its top running back. The Missouri number comes from a lineup that will look much the same on Saturday. If Texas cannot lean on its passing game, its path to a margin beyond a field goal narrows considerably.
The Pick: Missouri +2.5 (+100)
Our Final Word on Texas vs. Missouri
This game turns on whether Arch Manning can move the ball with a short-handed supporting cast against a healthy Missouri team. Our lean is that he will find it difficult. The biggest threat to both reads is simple. If Coleman and Wingo both play close to full strength, the Texas offense looks far more like the unit that beat Ole Miss and Ohio State.
Under 42.0 at -108 is our top play because the defensive profiles and a two-point drop from the opener both point the same way. Missouri +2.5 at even money is our second play because the healthier home team is getting points against a Texas roster missing key starters.