Texas vs. Baylor Spread Prediction
Are the Texas Longhorns back? Following their huge victory in the Red River Showdown against Oklahoma, the Longhorns will look to avoid a letdown when they host the Baylor Bears at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Texas is a double-digit favorite.
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, October 13, 2018
Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Longhorns are 14-point favorites to beat the Bears. The total, meanwhile, sits at 59.5 points. As of this writing, 56% of the public betting tickets wagered on this matchup are on the Longhorns.
Baylor sophomore QB Charlie Brewer went 30-of-44 for 296 yards, a touchdown and an interception in Saturday’s 37-34 triumph against Kansas State. He also ran for a touchdown. Kansas State came in wanting to keep Brewer in the pocket and limit his ability to push the ball down the field to his stud receivers, and they mostly succeeded on both accounts. Brewer only accounted for 10 rushing yards and his long pass went for a mere 21 yards. But Brewer showed solid efficiency with heavy usage in a back-and-forth, must-win game against a Big 12 opponent. For today, that’ll do. Baylor, 4-2, travels to rival Texas next week.
Texas sophomore QB Sam Ehlinger completed 24-of-35 passes for 314 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 72 yards and three additional scores in Saturday’s 48-45 upset of Oklahoma. Just a beautiful game by Ehlinger in this one. He accounted for a pair of scores in the second quarter, then came out of halftime to account for three more. On the strength of this output, the Longhorns held a 45-24 lead heading into the fourth quarter. OU then stormed back with 21 unanswered points before Texas finally regained its footing to set up a game-winning 40-yard field goal off the foot of Cameron Dicker in the closing seconds of the game. The Longhorns improved to 5-1 with the huge win. Since losing to Maryland in their opener, Texas has notched notable wins over USC, TCU and now Oklahoma. They very much look like a team that could win the Big 12 the way they’re playing. A home showdown with Baylor shows next on the schedule.
The Bears are 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six games overall.
The Longhorns are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 games versus an opponent team with a winning record.
Tom Herman’s teams have been highly profitable as underdogs but I don’t trust the Longhorns in this spot. They’re coming off an emotional victory and while Baylor is 4-2, this is a true letdown spot for Texas. They should win, but I see this game being relatively close and clearly other bettors do as well, as the spread dropped from Texas -16 down to Texas -14.
College Football Prediction: Baylor Bears +14