No. 8 Florida rolls into Columbia for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff against No. 25 Missouri, and the spread has stiffened all week. The Gators opened as 4-point road favorites and now sit at -5.5 after burying Ole Miss by 24. Missouri, meanwhile, arrives off its first loss and plays this one in front of a Homecoming crowd. There is a real case for the home underdog here, and the total has climbed as well. Our full card of picks follows below.
Last Updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026
Florida vs. Missouri — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, Columbia MO |
| When | Saturday, October 3 – 3:30 PM ET |
| TV | ABC |
Florida vs. Missouri Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | -5.5 (-115) | -230 | O 58 (-115) |
| Missouri | +5.5 (-105) | +190 | U 58 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, October 3, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Florida vs. Missouri — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Florida | 79% | 21% | Missouri |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Florida vs. Missouri Prediction — Can the Homecoming Underdog Hang Around?
The market has moved hard in one direction. Florida opened at -4 and now sits at -5.5, while the moneyline shifted from -225 to -230. The public is firmly on the same side, with 79 percent of spread tickets backing the Gators. That is a lopsided split on a ranked road favorite, and it usually means the number already carries a premium.
Situationally, the spot favors the home team. Florida just beat a top-five opponent by 24 points and now travels to a 3:30 kickoff in front of a Homecoming crowd. Letdown spots are real for young teams, and Sumrall is four games into his tenure. Missouri also has the quarterback advantage in one respect. Simmons has yet to throw an interception, and an offense that avoids turnovers tends to keep games close even when it is outgained.
The case against the Tigers is straightforward. Florida’s rushing attack is the most physical unit either team has faced, and Missouri may be short two edge rushers. Without Kitchen and Smith, holding up against 50-plus carries becomes a serious problem. Missouri’s run defense was average before the injuries. Still, a home underdog getting nearly a touchdown, with the number already pushed through a key integer, is the side with the better price.
The Pick: Missouri +5.5 (-105)
Florida vs. Missouri Prediction — Will a Run-Heavy Attack Slow This Down?
The total opened at 56.5 and has been bid up to 58. That move follows Florida’s scoring explosion, but the underlying style argues the other way. The Gators ran the ball 52 times against Ole Miss and attempted only 23 passes. That approach eats clock and limits possessions for both teams. Missouri’s scoring average of roughly 35 points per game is also inflated by a 54-point opener against an FCS opponent.
Against FBS competition, Missouri has managed 38, 27 and 24 points. Florida has allowed 22.8 per game. Pair those rates with a ground-heavy favorite and a projected total in the low-to-mid 50s looks more defensible than 58. The counterargument has teeth, however. Missouri’s secondary was beaten repeatedly at Mississippi State, and if Philo hits a few explosive throws off run action, this number can be cleared quickly.
The Pick: Under 58 (-105)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
There is one more angle worth a smaller stake. Missouri’s moneyline at +190 implies roughly a 34 percent chance of winning outright. In a series that has produced one-score finishes and a 33-31 home win three years ago, that feels close to fair rather than generous. A straight-up upset is plausible if Simmons keeps protecting the ball and the Tigers win the turnover battle. The risk is obvious. If Florida’s front controls the line of scrimmage for four quarters, this becomes a comfortable road win and the ticket dies early. Treat it as a reduced-size play rather than a core position, and keep our latest college football picks coverage handy for the rest of the card.
Bonus Angle: Missouri moneyline +190
To recap the card: Missouri +5.5 (-105) on the spread, Under 58 (-105) on the total, and a smaller-stake sprinkle on Missouri at +190 to win outright.
NCAAF Florida vs. Missouri FAQ: Saturday October 3, 2026
What time does the Florida vs. Missouri game start?
Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 3, 2026, which is 2:30 p.m. local time in Columbia. The matchup is part of Missouri’s Homecoming weekend, and Florida’s broadcast information confirms the window.
What channel is the Florida vs. Missouri game on?
The game airs nationally on ABC, with kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET. Florida’s athletics department confirmed the network assignment in late September. Missouri is hosting the game as part of its Homecoming weekend in Columbia.
Where are Florida and Missouri playing?
The teams meet at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri. This is a true road game for Florida, not a neutral-site matchup. It is also a conference game, with both programs competing in the Southeastern Conference in 2026.
Who won the last meeting between Florida and Missouri?
Missouri won the most recent meeting 33-31 on November 18, 2023, also in Columbia. The Tigers hold a narrow 7-6 edge in the all-time series. Both programs enter this one ranked, with Florida eighth and Missouri 25th in the current AP Top 25 poll.
Who is starting at quarterback for Florida and Missouri?
Aaron Philo starts for Florida and Austin Simmons starts for Missouri. Philo has thrown seven touchdowns against two interceptions through four games. Simmons, who transferred in from Ole Miss, has 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions. Neither quarterback appears on this week’s injury reports.