The under in Army vs. Navy games has been extremely profitable over the years, although the over did cash last year. What’s the smart bet when it comes to the total for today’s matchup at 3:00 p.m. ET?
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
103 Army Black Knights (-2.5) at 104 Navy Midshipmen (+2.5); o/u 27.5
3:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, December 9, 2023
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Army vs. Navy Public Betting Information
As of this writing, our CFB Public Betting page shows that 63% of bets are on Army. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided so that you’re getting the most updated information.
Army Black Knights Game Notes
Bryson Daily only threw one incomplete pass but sprinted for 94 yards on 22 carries and one touchdown in Army’s 28-21 win over Coastal Carolina on Saturday.
Daily had the most touches on the ground against the Chanticleers as the Black Knights did not have to throw the ball since they were ahead for most of the game. For the junior he might be throwing more against Navy in the annual rivalry game on Dec. 9. The Midshipmen’s defense is in the top 20 against the run while in the middle of the pack in the country against the pass. The Navy pass defense gave up 400-plus yards recently to Temple in the 32-18 loss on Nov. 4.
Navy Midshipmen Game Notes
Xavier Arline is expected to play in the Army-Navy game Saturday, according to the Navy’s website.
The Navy posted a media Zoom with head coach Brian Newberry, who inferred that Arline would be available. Assuming so, it would not be surprising if he is the Army’s starting quarterback again. Across their first three weeks of November, Arline logged 594 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns before an ankle injury prematurely ended his game at SMU.
Army vs. Navy Betting Trends
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Army’s last 17 games when playing Navy
Army is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Navy
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Navy’s last 17 games when playing Army
Navy is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing Army
Army vs. Navy Betting Prediction
Take the over. I realize that the under cashed in 16 of the last 17 meetings between these two teams, but the total has also never been lower. Here is the over/under for the Army-Navy game over the last 10 seasons: 49.5, 55.5, 50, 46.5, 44.5, 38.5, 41.5, 36, 35.5 and 32. While the game last year needed overtime to cash the over, the over cashed nonetheless.
Another thing to consider is how each of these teams have performed individually this season. The Midshipmen, for example, are allowing 22.9 points per game this season defensively. The Black Knights are allowing 22.0 per contest. While both offenses have struggled this season, there should be enough wiggle room against these defenses to get us over the total.
Army vs. Navy Prediction: OVER 27.5