Washington Win Total Prediction
The Washington Huskies had an excellent season in 2022. Washington went 11-2 in new head coach Kalen DeBoer’s first season and defeated Texas in the Alamo Bowl 27-20.
Can the Huskies win 10 regular season games for the second year in a row in 2023?
Washington Huskies Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 9.5 +115
Under 9.5 -135
2022 Season Recap
Washington began the season 4-0 in 2022, then dropped consecutive road tilts to UCLA and Arizona State. After that, the Huskies won their final seven games of the 2022 season, including ranked wins over Oregon, Oregon State, and Texas. The star of the show for Washington was Indiana transfer quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Penix was second in the country with 4,641 passing yards last season. He also threw 31 touchdowns and 8 interceptions while averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt and posting a passer rating of 151.3. Penix had previously worked with Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer while both men were at Indiana, and the combination of those two spurred Washington’s offense to untold heights last season. The Huskies ranked ninth in the nation in yards per play and tenth in the country in points per play in 2022. Penix elected to return for his senior season, and he’s tied for the fourth-best odds to win the Heisman Trophy according to BetMGM. This has the potential to be a huge year for Washington as they compete for a Pac-12 title in their final year in the conference.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: OG Jaxson Kirkland, DE Jeremiah Martin, CB Jordan Perryman, DB Alex Cook, OL Corey Luciano, LB Cam Bright, QB Sam Huard, EDGE Sav’ell Smalls, IOL Myles Murao, RB Wayne Taulapapa
Key Player Additions: RB Dillon Johnson, RB Daniyel Ngata, WR Germie Bernard, EDGE Zach Durfee, CB Jabbar Muhammad, OT Jalen Klemm, LB Ralen Goforth, CB Thaddeus Dixon, WR Rashid Williams, QB Alex Johnson
Washington didn’t lose any players to the NFL Draft. They did have multiple players end up on NFL rosters as undrafted free agents though. This indicates that the Huskies didn’t lose much elite talent from last year’s team. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. was great last season, and the Huskies added some skill players that could help him show out again in 2023. Former Mississippi State running back Dillon Johnson and former Arizona State tailback Daniyel Ngata should both see plenty of carries behind starting running back Cameron Davis who ran for 522 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. Washington also brought in former Michigan State wide receiver Germie Bernard, who should be the backup Z-receiver for the Huskies in 2023. The 6’1” 203-pound Bernard caught 7 passes for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns last season. He also had 6 kickoff returns for 119 yards as a member of the Spartans in 2022. Huskies wideouts Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze both recorded over 1,000 receiving yards last year and they’ll both be back in Seattle for another season, looking to build off of last year’s success. Washington’s wide receiving corps is among the best in the country.
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Despite losing multiple defensive players to the NFL and the transfer portal, Washington’s defense should still perform well in 2023. This is because the Huskies will probably start seven seniors, three redshirt juniors, and one redshirt sophomore on defense. That experience will likely come in handy once things become tight at the end of the conference season. The biggest addition to the club on that side of the ball is former Oklahoma State corner Jabbar Muhammad. Muhammad racked up 46 total tackles, an interception, and 9 passes defended for the Cowboys last year, and he should make an immediate impact in a Huskies secondary that allowed 8.1 yards per pass attempt last season.
Key Coaching Departures: No notable coaching departures
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: No notable coaching additions
Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer’s first year in Seattle was a rousing success. The Huskies went 11-2 and won a bowl game, with their only two losses coming by a combined 15 points. It seems evident that DeBoer is building something sustainable and worth believing in in the Pacific Northwest. Often when a team has a breakout season, their coordinators get poached by other schools looking for a new head coach. Despite the terrific play of Washington’s offense in 2022, the Huskies were able to keep their offensive coordinator and all of their position coaches on staff. It’s possible that DeBoer put together a great staff and several of the offensive coaches want to see things through to the end of star QB Michael Penix Jr.’s career. Penix himself likely came back to make a run at a conference championship and maybe even a potential playoff berth.
On defense, the Huskies elected to split the defensive coordinator duties between two coaches. Assistant head coach/linebackers coach William Inge is one co-defensive coordinator while safeties coach Chuck Morrell is the other co-defensive coordinator. Only Inge had previous defensive coordinator experience at the FBS level as he was the sole defensive coordinator for two years at the University of Buffalo and held that role for two years at Fresno State. Chuck Morrell was the defensive coordinator for more than a decade at the University of Sioux Falls and for one season at South Dakota. Both men had Washington’s defense ranked 69th in opponent points per play last season, but they should fare better in their second year in their current roles as they become more acquainted with their roster and the conference as a whole. In the ever-changing landscape of college football, sometimes continuity can be the difference between playing for a conference championship or ending up in a lesser bowl game in late December. The Huskies’ entire coaching staff returning bodes well for their chances in 2023.
NCAA Football Over/Under Prediction
According to Sports Betting Dime, Washington has the 32nd-most difficult schedule in the country in 2023. The Huskies avoided playing both USC and Utah last season, but they’ll face both clubs this year. Assuming Washington doesn’t get tripped up against any lesser foes, they’ll only have to win 2 out of 4 games against Oregon and Utah at home and USC and Oregon State on the road. Washington beat both Oregon and Oregon State last year, and I could easily see them beating both schools again. Washington will almost certainly have the offensive firepower to hang with USC and they’ll most likely be able to put up points against Utah.
But since Washington’s schedule is backloaded, you will likely know if they’re going to win 10 games before the USC game on November 4th. If Washington is 6-2 going into that game, you’ll have the opportunity to hedge against the Huskies either that week against USC or any of the ensuing games against Utah, Oregon State, or Washington State in the final week of the regular season. Because of how the schedule shakes out, I like Washington to win double-digit regular season games for the second year in a row. The odds being better than even money only sweeten the deal for me. I’m on the over of 9.5 regular season wins for the Huskies in 2023.
NCAA FOOTBALL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: WASHINGTON HUSKIES OVER 9.5 WINS +115