Tennessee Win Total Prediction
The Tennessee Volunteers were very close to having a great season in 2022. Tennessee went 11-2 and ended the campaign with a win in the Orange Bowl over Clemson 31-14.
Can the Volunteers repeat last year’s success and win double-digit regular season games again in 2023?
Tennessee Volunteers Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 9 -105
Under 9 -115
2022 Season Recap
Tennessee was the surprise team in the SEC last season in head coach Josh Heupel’s second year at the helm. The Volunteers went 7-6 in 2021 but began last season on an eight-game win streak that included ranked wins over Pittsburgh, Florida, LSU, Alabama, and Kentucky. Tennessee did eventually lose to Georgia, and then then the Vols lost to South Carolina two weeks later in a game where their star quarterback Hendon Hooker tore his ACL. A season that had looked so promising ended in relative disappointment, despite Tennessee’s emphatic Orange Bowl win over Clemson. Tennessee ranked fifth in the nation in points per play margin and fourth in the country in yards per point margin last season. But the Volunteers lost several key players from last year’s team, and they may have a difficult time replacing them in 2023.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: OT Darnell Wright, QB Hendon Hooker, WR Jalin Hyatt, WR Cedric Tillman, DE Byron Young, TE Princeton Fant, G Jerome Carvin, DT LaTrell Bumphus, LB Jeremy Banks, QB Tayven Jackson
Key Player Additions: WR Dont’e Thornton Jr., OT John Campbell Jr., OL Andrej Karic, LB Keenan Pili, K Charles Campbell, TE McCallan Castles, QB Nico Iamaleava, OL Larry Johnson III, WR Nathan Leacock, EDGE Caleb Herring
Tennessee lost four of their best players to this past year’s NFL Draft. The Chicago Bears selected first-team All-SEC Tennessee offensive tackle Darnell Wright with the #10 overall pick. Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker finished fifth in the Heisman balloting and threw for 3,135 yards and 27 touchdowns last season. The Lions took him in the third round. Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt was selected by the Giants in the third round as well, as he was coming off of a season where he won the Biletnikoff Award which is given to the nation’s best wide receiver each year. And finally, former Volunteers first-team All-SEC defensive lineman Byron Young was picked in the third round by the Los Angeles Rams. Those players will be tough to replace.
Bet on NCAAF Futures Odds from Any State! $750 bonus for All New Players!
Former Michigan QB Joe Milton will start under center for the Volunteers this year. Milton played admirably for the Volunteers at the end of the year last season after Hendon Hooker went down as he threw for 251 yards and 3 touchdowns in Tennessee’s Orange Bowl win over Clemson. At left tackle, the Vols brought in John Campbell Jr. from the University of Miami. Campbell is a 6’5” 315-pound three-star prospect out of Orlando. At receiver, Tennessee appears to have taken a volume approach to replace wideouts Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman in 2023. Tennessee signed former Oregon wideout Dont’e Thornton Jr. to play in the slot and inked four-star freshman Nathan Leacock and three-star frosh Nate Spillman to provide some depth at the X and Z receiver spots.
On defense, Tennessee will start nearly all seniors. The lone non-senior projected to start is redshirt junior defensive tackle Bryson Eason. The new face in the starting lineup is former BYU linebacker Keenan Pili. He’ll start at weakside linebacker after racking up 62 total tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, and 1 fumble recovery for the Cougars last season.
Key Coaching Departures: Offensive coordinator/tight ends coach Alex Golesh
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Joey Halzle (promotion), tight ends coach Alex Abeln (promotion), Graduate assistant Robert Ayers Jr.
Former Tennessee offensive coordinator/tight ends coach Alex Golesh left to become the head coach of South Florida this offseason. Golesh was the coordinator for a Tennessee offense that ranked fourth in the country in yards per play (6.9), second in the nation in points per play (0.602), and fourth in yards per point (11.2). Tennessee’s offense also led the nation in scoring last season with 44.5 points per game. The Vols had a 3,000-yard passer, a 1,200-yard receiver, and two 700-yard rushers last season. They had an explosive and dynamic offense, and it seems indisputable that Alex Golesh contributed to that. The only question is, how much of it was Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel, and how much of it was Alex Golesh? It should be noted that Heupel calls the plays and seems to set the tone for the offense and its hurry-up philosophy. To replace Alex Golesh, Josh Heupel simply elevated quarterbacks coach Joey Halzle to the offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach role. Since Alex Golesh was also the tight ends coach, Josh Heupel elected to elevate offensive analyst Alec Abeln to the role of tight ends coach for 2023. Abeln has never been a position coach in college football but has worked with Josh Heupel at three different programs throughout his five-year coaching career. It’s difficult to know how much the loss of Alex Golesh will affect the Volunteers’ offense, but it seems like a safe bet to say that they probably won’t lead the nation in scoring again this season.
NCAA Football Over/Under Prediction
Tennessee has the benefit of playing in the SEC East, but the drawback of playing Alabama from the SEC West every year. The Volunteers will play the 56th-toughest schedule this season out of 133 FBS teams. Their toughest games will be home against Georgia on November 18th, at Alabama on October 21st, and at home against Texas A&M on October 14th. Road dates with Florida and Missouri could also be potentially challenging. It seemed like a lot of things went right at the same time for the Volunteers last year, and I find it hard to see things shaking out like that again.
Last season was Tennessee’s first 10-win season (including bowls) since 2007. The previous five years, the Volunteers had gone 4-8, 5-7, 8-5, 3-7, and 7-6. The last time Tennessee had back-to-back 10-win seasons including bowls was under Phillip Fulmer in 2003 and 2004. Quarterback Hendon Hooker, wide receiver Jalin Hyatt, and offensive coordinator Alex Goresh will all be gone for 2023. And SEC defensive coordinators have had an entire offseason to break down Josh Heupel’s offense and figure out a way to slow it down and/or stop it. I’d like the bet better if the total was 9.5, but I still like the under at 9, which allows for a push if Tennessee goes 9-3. I think Tennessee will regress a bit and will fail to win 10 regular-season games in 2023.
NCAA FOOTBALL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS UNDER 9 WINS -115