Ohio State Win Total Prediction
The Ohio State Buckeyes were a whisker away from making the national championship game in 2022.
Ohio State went 11-2 and made the College Football Playoff before ultimately losing a heartbreaker to eventual national champion Georgia 42-41. Can the Buckeyes win the Big Ten with a new quarterback in 2023?
Ohio State Buckeyes Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 10.5 -110
Under 10.5 -110
2022 Season Recap
Ohio State began the season 11-0 last season before eventually losing to Michigan at home in the final game of the regular season. The Buckeyes missed out on a chance to play for the Big Ten championship but made it to the College Football Playoff anyway before losing the Peach Bowl to Georgia. Ohio State’s offense was led by quarterback C.J. Stroud, who was the #2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft by the Houston Texans. Stroud threw for 3,688 yards, 41 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions while averaging 9.5 yards per pass attempt and posting a passer rating of 177.7. Ohio State’s offense was tied for first in the nation in yards per play last season which was likely due to them having one of the best wide receiver groups and one of the better running back trios in the country. The defense was good too as the Buckeyes ranked 28th in the nation in opponent yards per play. Ohio State did lose several key contributors on both sides of the ball this offseason, and how their replacements play will likely determine how deep Ohio State is able to play into January.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: QB C.J. Stroud, OT Paris Johnson, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DE Zach Harrison, OT Dawand Jones, C Luke Wypler, S Ronnie Hickman, CB Cameron Brown, LB Teradja Mitchell, CB Jakailin Johnson
Key Player Additions: WR Carnell Tate, OG Victor Cutler Jr., RT Josh Simmons, DT Tywone Malone, DB Lorenzo Styles Jr., DB Davison Igbinosun, DB Ja’Had Carter, QB Tristan Gebbia, WR Brandon Inniss, OL Luke Montgomery
The most notable losses for Ohio State came on offense as they lost QB C.J. Stroud, OT Paris Johnson, and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba all to the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. But Ohio State consistently has one of the most talented rosters in the country, and this year should be no exception. Ohio State hasn’t formally named a starting quarterback yet, but it’s looking like it’s going to be true junior Kyle McCord. McCord has only thrown 58 career passes, but this will be his third year with the Buckeyes and he should have a plethora of terrific skill players to help him out. The loss of wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba shouldn’t hurt the Buckeyes at all as they still have Marvin Harrsion Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, two wide receivers who both recorded 1,100+ receiving yards and 10+ receiving touchdowns last year. The offensive line may be a question mark for Ohio State this season, but they brought in multiple players both through the transfer portal and recruiting to shore up that unit. Buckeyes offensive line coach Justin Frye should have the big boys playing well right away.
Ohio State’s defense should be good again in 2023. Each projected starter is a third-year player or older. The offseason additions that may make the biggest impact are defensive back Lorenzo Styles Jr. and interior defensive lineman Tywone Malone. Styles was a wide receiver for Notre Dame last season but elected to switch positions and transfer to Ohio State where his father Lorenzo Sr. once played and where his brother currently plays. Malone is a 6’4” 305-pound interior defensive lineman who should rotate in at nose tackle with redshirt junior Ty Hamilton to help shut down opposing teams’ rushing attacks.
Key Coaching Departures: Offensive coordinator/tight ends coach Kevin Wilson
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Offensive coordinator/wide receivers coach Brian Hartline (promotion), tight ends coach Keenan Bailey (promotion), offensive analyst Joe Philbin
Former Ohio State offensive coordinator and tight ends coach Kevin Wilson left the program to become the head coach at Tulsa. Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day replaced Wilson internally by promoting wide receivers coach Brian Hartline to offensive coordinator. Day also promoted former offensive quality control coach Keenan Bailey to coach the tight ends. Ryan Day has long been the one calling the plays for the Ohio State offense, so the loss of OC Kevin Wilson shouldn’t have that much of an impact on the team. Brian Hartline has been one of the better wide receivers coaches in the nation for a while now, and he seems ready to take on more responsibility as the offensive coordinator. Ohio State had three receivers with 30+ catches and 500+ receiving yards last season, and I could see that being the case again in 2023.
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The Ohio State defense is in good hands with defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Knowles was brought in from Oklahoma State, where he had somehow crafted a defense that ranked 1st in the country in third-down defense in 2020. Ohio State was 12th in the country in yards per game allowed last season and 17th in opponent points per game. If the Buckeyes offense is slightly less dynamic than it was last year, it will be up to the defense to pick up the slack. I think Ohio State has the coaches in place and the talent to put an elite defense on the field in 2023.
NCAA Football Over/Under Prediction
According to College Football News, Ohio State is tied for the 40th-toughest schedule out of 133 FBS teams. This places the Buckeyes’ schedule in the top third regarding difficulty. I’m not too worried about it. Since Ryan Day has been the head coach in Columbus, the Buckeyes have gone 13-1, 7-1, 11-2, and 11-2, counting bowls and playoff games. That’s an outstanding track record, and it speaks to the talent Ryan Day has recruited and the intelligence and acumen of his coaching staff. The total for Ohio State this season is 10.5, meaning they could lose 1 regular season game and still cash the over. Let’s dive into the schedule by looking at a trio of 4-game stretches.
Ohio State opens the season at Indiana, then plays home games against Youngstown State, and Western Kentucky. They should win those three. Then Ohio State has to go to South Bend to play Notre Dame. The Buckeyes beat the Fighting Irish last year, and I could see them doing that again. From there, Ohio State plays Maryland at home, Purdue on the road, Penn State at home, and then Wisconsin on the road. I don’t see the Buckeyes tripping up on any of those four games, though Penn State and Wisconsin could be tough if those schools begin to hit their stride by that point in the season.
Ohio State’s final four games are at Rutgers, home for Michigan State, home for Minnesota, and at Michigan. The only game out of those four that presents a potential problem would be Michigan, but I find it hard to believe Ohio State is going to lose to Michigan three times in a row after beating them 8 times in a row before that. I could easily see Ohio State finishing the regular season undefeated. The best-case scenario for over bettors would be Ohio State going into the Michigan game undefeated because that would mean your bet would cash either way. Even if Ohio State is 10-1 going into the Michigan game, I still think they’ll win and finish the year 11-1. In what may have been a transition year for many normal programs, I believe the Buckeyes will prove their standout national status in 2023 by winning the Big Ten and making it back to the College Football Playoff for the fourth time in five years.
NCAA FOOTBALL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES OVER 10.5 WINS -110