Tuesday CBB Best Bets Jan. 13: Will Alabama handle Miss State?

Last Updated on January 13, 2026 12:05 pm by Anthony Rome

Tuesday’s college basketball slate is loaded with compelling matchups. After digging into how these teams are performing — from tempo to defense, and key player availability — our Tuesday CBB Best Bets Jan. 13 column offers four plays that we like ahead of tonight’s top-25 action.

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CBB Best Bet: Virginia +4 (at Louisville)

Prediction: Take Virginia +4

This ACC battle features two ranked teams in a surprisingly close line, but the analytics and recent form suggest Virginia covers and potentially wins outright.

Why?

Virginia’s defensive identity and efficiency keep games tighter than most foes expect — and they’re trending toward lower totals. Virginia’s defense has limited opponents effectively this season.
Louisville has been inconsistent offensively — shooting around league-average percentages and turning the ball over at key moments.
Virginia is riding momentum and has a history of success against Louisville, including an overall 17–3 series edge.
Player impact: Virginia’s sharpshooter Jacari White is probable after missing time with a wrist issue, which improves spacing for the Cavaliers.
Louisville’s scoring relies heavily on a few jump shooters; if UVA controls the paint and tempo with its press and half-court discipline, the Cavaliers stay within the number.

Play: Virginia +4

CBB Best Bet: UConn/Seton Hall under 133.5

Prediction: Take the UNDER

Expect a half-court, physical defensive battle between two Big East contenders.

Why?

UConn (16–1) boasts elite defense nationally and prefers a controlled pace that limits easy scoring opportunities.
Seton Hall has built its success on defense first, ranking around the top 70 nationally in scoring defense.
Even with both teams’ offensive talent, their strengths lie in defensive stops and contested possessions — not free-flowing, run-and-gun basketball.
Recent remarks from preview coverage note this game is anticipated to be “low-scoring, physical defensive battle.”

Situational Insight: UConn has generally struggled to put up big scoring nights against top-tier defenses, and Seton Hall’s ability to force turnovers and disrupt rhythm suggests this one stays under the total.

Play: UNDER 133.5

CBB Best Bet: Iowa State/Kansas under 150.5

Prediction: Take the UNDER

Even with high-octane offenses, this Big 12 clash projects as a controlled tempo game that stays under 150.5.

Why?

Iowa State is undefeated (16–0) and efficient on both ends — they move the ball well but don’t play reckless tempo.
Kansas is capable of scoring but tends to slow pace against elite competition, and their offensive efficiency drops when playing in a half-court war.
ESPN analytics leaning moderately toward ISU (about a 59% win probability) hints at a competitive race rather than a runaway shoot-out.
When elite defenses collide with quality offenses, the result is often fewer possessions and contested shots over the arc — a recipe for UNDER results.

Play: UNDER 150.5

CBB Best Bet: Alabama -4.5 (at Miss State)

Prediction: Take Alabama -4.5

On paper and in practice, Alabama has more offensive firepower and the ability to control tempo against Mississippi State.

Why?

Alabama’s offense — led by its top scoring duo — is second in the SEC in combined points production, showing balanced scoring threats.
Mississippi State’s offensive capability centers around a pair of high scorers (Hubbard and Epps), but depth and scoring beyond that duo is limited compared to Alabama’s roster.
The Rebels have proven they can win big games where they can control pace — which they should be able to do as road favorites against an MSU team prone to inconsistent offense.

Play: Alabama -4.5