Is there value in the NBA ASG Total?
The 2016 NBA All-Star Game is tonight at 8:00PM ET and bettors looking for value may find it in the total.
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Western Conference is currently a 5.5-point favorite versus the East for tonight’s exhibition game. As for the total the number opened at 311.5 and has grew to a whopping 318.5.
It’s tempting to bet the over and then sit back and watch as the best-of-the-best in the NBA rack up a ton of points while playing zero defense. But if we’re purely searching for value then the play is the under.
Over the last two years the NBA All-Star Game has racked up 318 and 321 points, respectively. This is right in line with where the over/under has been set for this year’s game, but just three years ago the combined score was just 281. Four years ago the two teams produced 301 points and five years ago the combined score was 291.
Thus, in five years the game has only climbed over 318 points once: Last season. Oddsmakers clearly set the opening total too low at 311.5 and had to scramble when bettors started hitting the over hard. But the line is now inflated and there’s value in the buyback.
In fact, it might be best to wait to see if the total grows even more as novice bettors continue to hit the over the closer we draw to the 8:00PM ET tip-off. Again, it’s tempting to want to bet the over if you’re planning on tuning in, but chances are the combined score will be closer to oddsmakers’ original thought (i.e. 311.5) then the inflated number.