Heat vs. Nuggets Prediction & Odds
The eighth-seeded Miami Heat head back to Denver to face the top-seeded Nuggets on ABC Monday night at 8:30 PM ET in Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals.
Can the Heat cover the 9-point spread as road underdogs?
Denver leads the series 3-1.
The Miami Heat went 44-38 in the regular season. They are 14-10 in the play-in and playoffs this year. The Heat are 45-58-3 ATS on the season.
The Denver Nuggets went 53-29 in the regular season. They’re 15-4 in the playoffs this year. The Nuggets are 56-44-1 ATS on the season.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
521 Miami Heat (+9) at 522 Denver Nuggets (-9); O/U 209
8:30 PM ET, Monday, June 12, 2023
Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Heat vs. Nuggets Public Betting Information
Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 50% of public bettors are currently backing the Nuggets -9 in this contest. Note that these numbers are subject to change, so be sure to check the link to receive the most up-to-date public betting data.
Miami Heat DFS Spin
Miami guard Tyler Herro has officially been ruled out for Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday with a broken right hand. Herro averaged 20.1 points per game for the Heat during the regular season.
This could be the last stand for Heat star forward Jimmy Butler. Butler is averaging 27.2 points per game for the playoffs, but he hasn’t scored 30 in a game since Miami’s Game 1 win over Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals on May 17th. If the Heat are going to stave off elimination, they’ll likely need a big game from Jimmy Butler.
Miami center Bam Adebayo will likely need to be better than he was in Game 4. Adebayo went only 8 for 19 from the field and scored an inefficient 20 points in Miami’s 108-95 home loss on Friday. He’ll likely have to shoot better than his playoff average of 48.3% for Miami to win on Monday.
Denver Nuggets DFS Spin
Denver center Nikola Jokic continues to play well even as Miami looks to limit his passing. Jokic had 23 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 assists in Friday’s Game 4 win, but he did knock down 3 three-pointers, block 3 shots, and snag 3 steals. He may be in for a big night with the NBA Finals trophy hanging in the balance on Monday.
Nuggets guard Jamal Murray is the other half of the NBA’s best duo and he’s averaging 23.3 points and 10.5 assists per game in the NBA Finals so far. I think he could get a boost from the home crowd in Denver on Monday and propel the Nuggets to the championship with a standout performance.
Heat vs. Nuggets NBA Betting Trends
Miami is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
Miami is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after an outright loss of more than 10 points.
Denver is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
Denver is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Heat vs. Nuggets NBA Prediction
After losing Games 3 and 4 of this series at home, Miami is in big trouble. The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. Miami has also struggled against Denver as they are 10-28 ATS in their last 38 games against the Nuggets.
Denver could roll in this game on Monday night as the Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Nuggets are also 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games against a team with a winning straight-up record. I like the Nuggets to win big and take home the Larry O’Brien Trophy in Denver on Monday night.
NBA BETTING PREDICTION: DENVER NUGGETS -9