Heat vs. Nuggets Prediction & Odds
The eighth-seeded Miami Heat travel to Denver to face the top-seeded Nuggets on ABC Thursday night at 8:30 PM ET in Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals.
Can the Heat cover the 9-point spread as road underdogs?
The series is tied 0-0.
The Miami Heat went 44-38 in the regular season. They are 13-7 in the play-in and playoffs this year. The Heat are 44-55-3 ATS on the season.
The Denver Nuggets went 53-29 in the regular season. They’re 12-3 in the playoffs this year. The Nuggets are 53-43-1 ATS on the season.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
513 Miami Heat (+9) at 514 Denver Nuggets (-9); O/U 219
8:30 PM ET, Thursday, June 1, 2023
Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Heat vs. Nuggets Public Betting Information
Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 53% of public bettors are currently backing the Heat +9 in this contest. Note that these numbers are subject to change, so be sure to check the link to receive the most up-to-date public betting data.
Miami Heat DFS Spin
Miami guard Tyler Herro is ramping up his basketball activity after breaking his hand in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. He’s reportedly targeting Game 3 of the NBA Finals for his return. Herro averaged 20.1 points per game for Miami during the regular season.
The star of the Eastern Conference Finals was Miami’s Caleb Martin. In 7 games against Boston, Martin averaged 19.3 points and 6.4 rebounds per game while shooting a scorching 60.2% from the field and 48.9% from beyond the arc. The 6’5” Nevada alum will likely see big minutes in Game 1 of this series, and his scoring efficiency makes him an attractive DFS option on Thursday night.
Denver Nuggets DFS Spin
Denver point guard Jamal Murray was instrumental in the Nuggets’ sweep of the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. In that series, Murray poured in 32.5 points per game while shooting 52.7% from the field and 40.5% from deep. He may be worth the steep price in DFS on Thursday.
Nuggets shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will likely be on the floor quite a bit in Game 1. KCP is averaging 33.3 minutes per game in these playoffs, and he’s shooting well both from the field (48.1%) and the three-point line (41.1%) in the postseason thus far. He could be a cost-effective DFS option on Thursday night.
Heat vs. Nuggets NBA Betting Trends
Miami is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.
Miami is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game.
Miami is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
The over is 13-4 in Miami’s last 17 games following an ATS win.
Heat vs. Nuggets NBA Prediction
The Heat have done something incredible when it comes to their record against the spread. Miami was tied for the worst regular season record against the spread at 30-49-3. In the play-in and the playoffs, they’ve had the best record against the spread at 14-6. Miami has been good on the road as they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games, and they’ve been solid against elite teams as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning percentage over .600. The Nuggets haven’t played a game since May 22nd. They’ve had 9 days off while Miami had to go on the road to win Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals in Boston. I think Denver shows a bit of rust, and Miami keeps it competitive on Thursday night.
NBA BETTING PREDICTION: MIAMI HEAT +9