Heat vs. Celtics Prediction & Odds
The eighth-seeded Miami Heat head back to Boston to take on the 2nd-seeded Celtics on TNT Monday night at 8:30 PM ET in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals in the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
Can the Celtics cover the 7.5-point spread as home favorites?
The series is tied 3-3.
The Miami Heat went 44-38 in the regular season. They are 12-7 in the play-in and playoffs this year. The Heat are 43-55-3 ATS on the season.
The Boston Celtics went 57-25 in the regular season. They are 11-8 in the playoffs so far. The Celtics are 56-45 ATS on the year.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
509 Miami Heat (+7.5) at 510 Boston Celtics (-7.5); O/U 203
8:30 PM ET, Monday, May 29, 2023
TD Garden, Boston, MA
Heat vs. Celtics Public Betting Information
Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 83% of public bettors are currently backing the Heat +7.5 in this contest. Note that these numbers are subject to change, so be sure to check the link to receive the most up-to-date public betting data.
Miami Heat DFS Spin
Miami guards Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo will remain out for Monday’s Game 7 in Boston. Oladipo is out for the season and Herro may be able to return if Miami makes the NBA Finals. Heat point guard Gabe Vincent missed Game 5 of this series with a left ankle sprain. He did return to play in Game 6 of this series, however. Vincent is fourth on Miami in scoring with 13.3 points per game in these playoffs and he’s officially listed as questionable for Game 7 in Boston on Monday.
Boston Celtics DFS Spin
Boston point guard Malcolm Brogdon missed Game 6 in Miami with a partially torn tendon in his right forearm. He’s listed as questionable for Monday’s game. Brogdon is the first man off the bench for the Celtics and he’s poured in 12.6 per game in 18 playoff contests this season.
Boston shooting guard Jaylen Brown could be primed for a big game on Monday. Brown has scored more than 20 points and shot 50% or better from the field in Boston’s last two wins over Miami in this series. Additionally, Brown recorded 25 points and 6 rebounds in the Celtics’ second-round Game 7 win over the 76ers. Jayson Tatum may get top billing for Boston’s offense, but Jaylen Brown will likely be just as important for the Celtics on Monday.
Heat vs. Celtics NBA Betting Trends
Boston is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss.
Boston is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Boston is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
The under is 12-5 in Boston’s last 17 Monday games.
Heat vs. Celtics NBA Prediction
The Celtics have done what only three other NBA teams have done before: force a Game 7 after being down 3-0 in a playoff series. Boston will be the only one of those teams to have their Game 7 at home. The Celtics’ spectacular last-second win on a Derrick White putback at the horn had to take something out of Miami. The Heat seemingly had the game in the bag only for it to be snatched from them at the last possible moment.
I’m not sure how Miami wins this game. Boston has ramped up the defensive intensity of late and they are playing better than they ever have the entire season in the past week. The Celtics blew out the 76ers in Game 7 of the second round in the TD Garden, and I believe that the Celtics are more likely to win this game decisively than to lose it outright. I’ll fade the public and back Boston at home in Game 7 on Monday night.
NBA BETTING PREDICTION: BOSTON CELTICS -7.5