2011 NBA Finals Game 1 Free Pick
(The Spread) – Game 1 of the 2011 NBA Finals kicks off tonight when the Miami Heat host the Dallas Mavericks at 9:00PM ET.
Odds: Oddsmakers from online sports book Bodog have made the Heat 4.5-point favorites over the Mavericks in Game 1 tonight. The over/under total for this game is currently 187.5 points.
Line Movement: The Heat opened as 4.5-point favorites and at most books, the line has remained the same. The total opened at 188 and quickly dropped to 186.5, but is now up to 187.5 at most books.
Public Betting Info: Of the 13,000-plus wagers on tonight’s game, 58% of the public is on Dallas +4.5, which is a little surprising given the star power that Miami has.
NBA Finals Free Pick: The value is in Dallas tonight, which seemingly isn’t getting the respect it deserves despite blowing through the competition to get to this point. Dirk Nowitzki has been fantastic this postseason, averaging 28.4 points per game, while Jason Kidd is averaging 7.7 assists per contest and 2.20 steals. According to latest NBA trends, the Mavs are 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 trips to Miami and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Heat. The underdog is also 9-4-1 against the number in their last 14 meetings between these two teams, while the road team is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. I had this line at Heat –2, so I like the value in getting Dallas at +4.5.
2011 NBA FINALS GAME 1 FREE PICK: DALLAS MAVERICKS +4.5
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