The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Chicagoland Speedway on Sunday for the eero 400, and the field arrives at a track no active driver has raced in the modern car. Denny Hamlin will lead them to green from the pole, and he does so as the hottest driver in the garage. He also sits atop the championship standings for the first time this year.
Our headline pick backs Hamlin to convert that pole into a win, but the value on the board runs deeper than the favorite. Below we break down the starting grid, the latest eero 400 odds, and our full slate of picks for race day.
Last Updated: Sunday, July 5, 2026
2026 eero 400 — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Chicagoland Speedway, Joliet, IL |
| When | Sunday, July 5 – 6:00 PM ET |
| TV | TNT |
Pre-Race Report
Qualifying set a dramatic tone on Saturday. Hamlin claimed the pole with a lap of 178.241 mph, edging Kyle Larson by just 0.001 seconds. It was the closest pole battle of the 2026 season. The run gave Hamlin his fourth pole of the year and the 52nd of his career, moving him past Ryan Newman for ninth on NASCAR’s all-time list.
Larson starts second, and the front row features the two most credentialed intermediate drivers in the field. Behind them, RFK Racing showed real speed. Chris Buescher qualified third and Brad Keselowski fourth. Ty Gibbs, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, Bubba Wallace, Chase Elliott, and William Byron round out the top 10 starters. Notably, Tyler Reddick was quick in practice yet will roll off 13th, so he has track position to make up early.
The bigger storyline is history. This is the first Cup race at Chicagoland since 2019, a seven-year gap that erases most current form data at the 1.5-mile oval. Alex Bowman won that last race for his first career victory. No penalties or lineup changes altered the front of the grid after qualifying, so the order is set as posted.
2026 eero 400 — Top Odds to Win
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +275 |
| Tyler Reddick | +350 |
| Kyle Larson | +450 |
| Ryan Blaney | +900 |
| Christopher Bell | +1000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +1400 |
| Chris Buescher | +1600 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1600 |
| Chase Elliott | +1800 |
| William Byron | +1800 |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, July 5, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NASCAR Odds – Props
Top Pick to Win — Denny Hamlin
The Pick: Denny Hamlin to win (+275). Hamlin enters as both the pole sitter and the points leader, and the timing could not be better. He won at Michigan and added a victory at Nashville during a hot stretch that carried him to the top of the standings. On intermediate tracks, his Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has been among the fastest cars all year.
Chicagoland rewards the traits Hamlin has shown lately. It is a worn, 1.5-mile oval where tire management and clean restarts matter. Hamlin has run up front on similar layouts for months. Starting first also gives him clean air and pit-road choice, two advantages that compound over 267 laps.
The case against is mostly about price and variance. At +275, the implied probability sits near 26.7 percent, which is a short number in a 38-car race. Pole position at an intermediate track does not guarantee anything once the field spreads out. Nobody in this garage has meaningful recent data at Chicagoland, so a setup miss would not surprise. Still, when the fastest qualifier is also the driver in the best form, the profile fits a winner. Hamlin is the pick.
Value Play — Kyle Larson
The Value Play: Kyle Larson to win (+450). Larson missed the pole by a thousandth of a second and starts on the front row. He is the defending Cup Series champion and arguably the best pure intermediate racer in the sport. At +450, he offers a longer number than Hamlin without giving up much on race-day ceiling.
The knock on Larson is his 2026 results. He has yet to reach Victory Lane this season and sits sixth in points despite steady finishes. That winless stretch is the reason his price drifts behind Hamlin and Reddick. However, a driver of Larson’s caliber starting second on a fast intermediate is exactly the type of overdue contender worth backing before he breaks through. The risk is that the win simply does not come, and he settles for another strong-but-not-first result.
Race Day Outlook — Picks and Final Thoughts
The head-to-head market offers a cleaner angle than chasing a longshot outright. Kyle Larson (+125) over Tyler Reddick stands out. Larson starts second while Reddick lines up 13th, so Larson holds the track-position edge from the drop of the green. Getting plus money on the better-qualified and more accomplished intermediate driver is fair value. The counterpoint is real, though. Reddick was fast in practice and led the standings for much of the season, so a charge through the field is well within his range.
For a second matchup, Chase Briscoe (-135) over Chase Elliott is defensible. Briscoe starts seventh to Elliott’s ninth, and his JGR equipment has carried strong intermediate speed. The risk is price, since laying -135 leaves little margin if Elliott’s Hendrick car finds balance late.
Watch fuel windows and long-run tire fall-off once the race settles. A surface unused by Cup cars since 2019 could produce more passing than a typical intermediate. That helps drivers starting outside the top five. Christopher Bell (+1000) is the next name up as a deeper flier, but our conviction stays on the front row.
To recap our eero 400 picks: Denny Hamlin to win (+275), Kyle Larson to win (+450), Kyle Larson over Tyler Reddick (+125) in the head-to-head, and Chase Briscoe over Chase Elliott (-135) in the head-to-head. The front row anchors the card, and the matchups add value where the grid does the work.
2026 NASCAR eero 400 July 5, 2026 FAQ
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 eero 400?
Denny Hamlin is the favorite at +275 via TheSpread.com. He starts on the pole and leads the NASCAR Cup Series championship standings entering the race.
When is the 2026 eero 400?
The 2026 eero 400 is scheduled for Sunday, July 5, 2026, with the green flag set for 6:00 PM ET at Chicagoland Speedway in Joliet, Illinois.
What channel is the 2026 eero 400 on?
The 2026 eero 400 will be broadcast on TNT. The race is scheduled for 267 laps around the 1.5-mile Chicagoland oval.
Who is on the pole for the 2026 eero 400?
Denny Hamlin won the pole with a lap of 178.241 mph, edging Kyle Larson by 0.001 seconds. Larson starts second on the front row.
How many laps is the 2026 eero 400?
The 2026 eero 400 is scheduled for 267 laps at the 1.5-mile Chicagoland Speedway, a distance of roughly 400 miles.
Who won the last NASCAR Cup race at Chicagoland Speedway?
Alex Bowman won the last Cup race at Chicagoland in 2019, holding off Kyle Larson for his first career victory. Sunday marks the track’s first Cup race since then.
For more on the market, see our full eero 400 odds breakdown.