The New York Yankees open a three-game series at Target Field on Monday night, and the betting market has landed in an odd place. Bettors have piled onto New York at a rate you rarely see, yet the moneyline has drifted the other way since it opened. That disconnect shaped our read. The pitching gives the Yankees a real edge, but the price you pay for it matters just as much.
Last Updated: Monday, September 14, 2026
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
| When | Monday, September 14 – 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES Network (New York), Twins.TV (Minnesota) |
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins Betting Preview
Start with the arms, because this game turns on them. Will Warren (10-6, 4.05 ERA) and Dean Kremer (3-5, 5.65 ERA) are the listed probable starters. Warren has been the sharper of the two lately. He struck out seven over seven innings against Boston on August 30 and allowed one earned run across six innings against Colorado on September 9, punching out eight. His only recent blemish was a two-and-a-third-inning outing at San Diego on September 4.
Kremer’s profile is more complicated. His full-season ERA of 5.65 is ugly, but it is inflated by his time in Baltimore. Since joining Minnesota he owns a 4.79 ERA and a 1.234 WHIP across seven appearances, which is a meaningful improvement. However, length remains the problem. He has not finished the sixth inning in any of his last five starts, topping out at five and a third. That pattern hands the Twins bullpen the middle innings almost every time out.
The records tell the rest of the story. New York sits at 86-63 and holds second place in the AL East, riding a 7-3 stretch that included a 2-0 win over the Mets on Sunday. Minnesota is 70-79 and fading. The Twins have allowed five or more runs in six of their last 10 games, including a 9-2 loss to Cleveland on Sunday. Still, the Twins took two of three from New York at Yankee Stadium in July and lead the season series 2-1.
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -1.5 (+125) | -133 | U 8.5 (-110) |
| Twins | +1.5 (-145) | +111 | O 8.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of September 14, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Yankees | 86% | 14% | Twins |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Yankees vs. Twins Prediction — NY Worth Play on Run Line?
The load-bearing signal is Kremer’s workload pattern. Five straight starts without reaching the sixth inning is no longer a small-sample quirk. It means Minnesota relievers are likely handling the fifth and sixth against a lineup that scored 10 runs as recently as September 10. A road team also bats in the ninth regardless of the score, giving the visitors one more crack at extending a lead. That matters when the margin needs to be two.
The market picture is where this gets interesting. New York opened at -140 on the moneyline and now sits at -133, even though 92% of moneyline tickets are on the Yankees. That is reverse line movement, and it is the single most respected market signal in baseball. It argues that the sharper money is quietly on Minnesota. However, that movement lives entirely on the moneyline. The run line moved the other direction, from +130 to +125 on New York -1.5. In other words, the market is pushing back on the price of the Yankees winning, not on the Yankees winning comfortably.
The case against is real. Minnesota has been better behind Kremer than his season line suggests, and roughly 28% of MLB games are decided by one run, which is why this number sits at 1.5. New York also scored just two runs in each of its last two games. If this becomes a 3-2 grind, the two-run margin never arrives. The counter is price: at plus money you are paid to take that risk.
The Pick: Yankees Run Line -1.5 (+125)
Yankees vs. Twins Prediction — Do Shaky Staffs Push Number?
This second play rests partly on the same input as the first, and that is worth saying plainly. Kremer’s short outings drive both reads. Beyond him, Minnesota’s run prevention has been leaking broadly, with six of the Twins’ last 10 opponents reaching five runs or more. Meanwhile the total opened at 8.5 with the under juiced to -120 and now sits at 8.5 with both sides at -110. The number never moved, but the price on the over did. That is quiet confirmation, not a loud one.
The under case is genuinely strong, and anyone taking the over should understand it. Minnesota’s offense has gone cold, topping four runs just twice in its last 10 games. Warren has also been stingy, allowing a single earned run in each of his last two full starts. Target Field is not a bandbox either. The over needs New York to do most of the work, with the Twins contributing three or four runs off a Yankees bullpen that has been reliable. That is a live risk, not a footnote.
The Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The swing moment in this game arrives earlier than usual. Watch the fifth inning. If Kremer is at a high pitch count with runners on and Minnesota goes to the bullpen with the score close, both of our positions improve at once. If he instead works a clean fifth and hands over a one-run game, the under and the Twins side both come alive quickly.
The second thing to watch is how much weight the reverse line movement deserves. A seven-cent moneyline move is modest. It is enough to warn you off laying the short price on a 92%-backed favorite. It is not enough to send us to the other side of a clear pitching mismatch. A similar public-versus-price setup runs through Sunday’s Mets vs. Yankees prediction.
To recap both plays from this game: Yankees Run Line -1.5 (+125) and Over 8.5 (-110). Both are leans built on real signals, not certainties, and both hinge on Minnesota’s starter being unable to hand a lead to the back of the bullpen.
MLB Yankees vs. Twins FAQ: Monday September 14, 2026
What time does the Yankees vs. Twins game start?
First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET on Monday, September 14, 2026. That is 6:40 p.m. local time in Minneapolis. This is the opener of a three-game series between the two clubs, with the remaining games set for September 15 and September 16.
What channel is the Yankees vs. Twins game on?
The game airs on YES Network in the New York market and on Twins.TV in the Minnesota market. There is no national broadcast listed for this matchup. Viewers outside both local territories can find the game through MLB.TV, subject to standard regional blackout rules.
Who is pitching for the Yankees tonight?
Right-hander Will Warren is the probable starter for New York, carrying a 10-6 record and a 4.05 ERA into the outing. Minnesota counters with right-hander Dean Kremer, who is 3-5 with a 5.65 ERA on the season across stints with Baltimore and the Twins.
Where are the Yankees and Twins playing today?
The game is at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota, the Twins’ home ballpark. New York is the visiting team for all three games of this series. The clubs’ earlier 2026 meetings in July were played at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.
What is the season series record between the Yankees and Twins?
Minnesota leads the 2026 season series 2-1. The Yankees won 5-2 on July 3, then the Twins took the next two, closing with a 6-1 win on July 5. All three games were played in New York, making this the first meeting of the year at Target Field.