The New York Yankees head to Baltimore on Thursday looking to press an advantage they have held all season. Gerrit Cole takes the ball for New York against Orioles right-hander Kyle Bradish, and the market has installed the Yankees as modest road favorites at -131. This is a pitching-forward matchup with a total of just 8 runs, and the shape of the game may matter more than the side.
Last Updated: August 20, 2026
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| When | Thursday, August 20 – 6:35 PM ET |
| TV | MASN and YES Network |
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
The pitching matchup is where this game is decided. Cole carries a 3.22 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and roughly 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings, and he has been even better lately. Over his last five starts he has allowed just seven earned runs across 31-plus innings, working into the sixth or seventh nearly every time. His command has been the story, as he walked no one in two of those five outings.
Bradish is no soft landing spot, though. He owns a 3.65 ERA and has quietly strung together quality work, allowing two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The concern is his walk rate near four per nine, which runs higher than Cole’s and can invite the kind of long innings that hurt an under. Baltimore fans also remember that Bradish held the Yankees to one hit over six scoreless innings back in May, so this lineup does not scare him.
The records tell a lopsided story. New York arrives around 71-55 and sits firmly in the American League East race, while Baltimore sits below .500 near 61-66. Both clubs are middling over their last 10 games, with the Yankees 6-4 and the Orioles 5-5. One caveat cuts against New York, though. The Yankees remain without slugger Aaron Judge, out on the injured list for an extended stretch, and that missing bat lowers their offensive ceiling.
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -1.5 (+130) | -131 | U 8 (-120) |
| Orioles | +1.5 (-150) | +109 | O 8 (+100) |
Odds accurate as of August 20, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Yankees | 64% | 36% | Orioles |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction — Is This a Night for the Arms?
Start with the run environment, because that is where the cleanest edge lives. The total opened at 8 and the number has not budged, but the pricing has. The under has grown more expensive since the open, a sign that money has leaned toward fewer runs even as the line held. When a total stays put and the juice migrates to one side, that side is usually where the sharper interest sits.
The baseball supports the same conclusion. Cole is missing bats and limiting free passes, exactly the profile that keeps a game low. Bradish has been steady across his recent turns and has already shown he can silence this specific lineup. Camden Yards helps as well. The park pushed its left-field fence back in 2022, and the deeper dimensions have trimmed right-handed home run production ever since. Subtract Judge’s bat from the Yankees order, and the run-scoring ceiling drops another notch.
The case against the under is real. Bradish walks too many hitters, and a couple of free passes can turn into a crooked number in a hurry. Baltimore’s bullpen has also been leaky at times. Still, with two starters capable of working deep and the market nudging the same way, the signals point to a quieter night than an eight-run total implies.
The Pick: Under 8 (-120)
Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction — Is Cole Worth the Price?
If the game stays tight and low-scoring, the side read comes down to the arms and the rosters. Cole is the better pitcher on paper and in recent form, and the Yankees are simply the better team. They hold a comfortable edge in the standings and have gotten the better of Baltimore repeatedly this season, a pattern we broke down in our prediction for the previous game in this series. With the game projecting close, the moneyline is the cleaner way to back that edge than laying the run line, since a one-run finish is very much in play against a low total.
The counterpoints keep this a lean, not a firm stand. At -131, the price already bakes in most of New York’s advantage, so the value is thin. Bradish’s May shutout of the Yankees is a reminder that talent can be neutralized on any given night, and the absence of Judge makes New York easier to hold down. The read is that the superior arm and deeper roster win a close one, but this is a modest edge, not a hammer.
The Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-131)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The swing factor is Bradish’s command. If he throws strikes and keeps the walk total low, this plays out as a taut pitchers’ duel that rewards both of our reads. If he loses the zone early, the Yankees can build an inning even without Judge, and the under gets tested in a hurry.
The late innings are the other variable. Cole’s ability to work into the seventh keeps New York’s bullpen fresh and protects a low-scoring script, while Baltimore’s relief corps has been the shakier group. Both picks bet on a controlled, low-event game, so a bullpen meltdown on either side is the shared risk.
To recap the card for Thursday: the strongest play is the Under 8 (-120), with the Yankees Moneyline (-131) as a supporting lean. Both rest on the same expectation of a tight, pitching-driven night.
MLB Yankees vs. Orioles FAQ: Thursday August 20, 2026
What time does the Yankees vs. Orioles game start?
First pitch is set for 6:35 PM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2026, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore. It is the finale of a three-game set between the two American League East rivals.
What channel is the Yankees vs. Orioles game on?
The game airs regionally on MASN in the Baltimore market and on the YES Network in the New York market. Fans outside those territories can find the broadcast through MLB.TV, subject to local blackout rules.
Who is pitching for the Yankees against the Orioles?
Gerrit Cole is the probable starter for New York, carrying a 3.22 ERA into the outing. Baltimore counters with right-hander Kyle Bradish, who owns a 3.65 ERA. Both arms have pitched well over their recent starts, setting up a strong pitching matchup.
Where are the Yankees and Orioles playing?
The teams meet at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland, the Orioles’ home ballpark. Baltimore holds home-field advantage for this contest, the third and final game of the current series against New York.
Is Aaron Judge playing for the Yankees against the Orioles?
No, Aaron Judge is not in the lineup. The Yankees slugger has been sidelined on the injured list for an extended stretch, missing a long run of games. New York has continued to win at a solid clip in his absence, but his bat remains a significant hole in the order.