The Seattle Mariners visit the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday night looking to build on a tight series-opening win, and the betting market sees something close to a coin flip. Pittsburgh sits as a slim home favorite at -117 on the moneyline, while the total rests at 7.5 runs. The pitching matchup carries this card, pairing Pirates right-hander Braxton Ashcraft against Seattle's Bryan Woo. There is value to be found, and our lead lean centers on the price attached to the better team. Here is how we are reading it.
Last Updated: Wednesday, June 24, 2026
SEATTLE MARINERS VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES TIME & HOW TO WATCH | |
|---|---|
| Where | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| When | Wednesday, June 24 – 6:40 PM ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh; out-of-market via MLB.TV |
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Game Preview
The arms set the tone here. Ashcraft has been Pittsburgh's steadiest starter, carrying a 3.18 ERA with 97 strikeouts over 90.2 innings. He misses bats at a 9.6 K/9 clip and works the zone. However, his stamina is a question. He failed to finish six innings in his last two June starts after going at least six in every May outing, a fatigue flag worth tracking given his climbing workload.
Woo brings a 6-5 record and a 3.94 ERA with an elite 1.000 WHIP. His splits, though, tell a sharp story. He has been excellent at home and far shakier on the road, where the bulk of his trouble has landed. He surrendered seven earned runs in a June road start at Baltimore, tying a career high. Pitching away from Seattle again raises the degree of difficulty.
The standings frame the rest. Seattle enters at 41-39 and sits atop the AL West, while Pittsburgh is 39-40 and fourth in the NL Central. The Mariners edged the Pirates 3-2 in Tuesday's opener, riding a Cole Young go-ahead homer and a Cal Raleigh solo shot. Raleigh is still building back power after an oblique injury earlier this season. Pittsburgh's bats have been quiet of late, with Bryan Reynolds among the few reliable producers.
SEATTLE MARINERS VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES ODDS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
| Mariners | +1.5 (-220) | -103 | U 7.5 (-110) |
| Pirates | -1.5 (+180) | -117 | O 7.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Wednesday, June 24, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds - Futures - Props
MARINERS VS PIRATES WHO IS THE PUBLIC BETTING? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | 32% | 68% | Pirates |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction — Is the Road Dog the Real Value?
The mound matchup is exactly why this line lands where it does. Ashcraft at home has been sharper than Woo on the road, so the market shades Pittsburgh to a narrow favorite. That reasoning is sound on its face. Woo's road command has wobbled, and another start away from Seattle is a legitimate concern. If he labors early, the Pirates can win this outright.
Still, the price tells a different story. Seattle is the better team on paper, leads its division, and just took the opener on the road. Meanwhile, Ashcraft's recent short outings hint at fatigue, and an early exit would push this into a Pittsburgh bullpen that has been worked hard. Getting the AL West leader at essentially even money is a value spot, especially with Woo's strikeout-and-control profile capable of travelling on any given night.
The case against us is clear. Woo's road ERA is the obvious hole, and a sharp Ashcraft can quiet a Seattle lineup that is still rounding back into form. This is not a heavy play. It is a lean toward the stronger club at a forgiving number.
The Pick: Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-103)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction — Will Two Strike-Throwers Keep It Quiet?
The total leans on the same arms. Both starters limit traffic, with Woo's 1.000 WHIP and Ashcraft's 9.6 K/9 pointing to a game where contact stays manageable early. PNC Park also plays as one of the more pitcher-friendly venues in the league, which helps suppress the kind of damage that pushes totals over. The opener landed at 3-2, well under this number, with both offenses sputtering.
The other side is straightforward. Woo has been hittable on the road, and if either starter exits by the fifth, two middling bullpens could leak late runs. Even so, the combination of quality starting pitching, a spacious park, and two cool lineups tilts this toward a lower-scoring night.
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
A few swing points will decide this one. Watch Ashcraft's pitch count closely, because his recent five-inning outings suggest the Pirates may need length from a tired bullpen. Woo's first two innings matter just as much, since his road trouble has often shown up early before he settles in. Cal Raleigh's ramp-up is another quiet variable, as a return to form from Seattle's catcher changes the lineup's ceiling.
Late-inning leverage is the broader theme. If both starters hand off close games, the result may come down to which manager gets the better matchups in the seventh and eighth. For another angle on Wednesday's slate, see our Rangers vs. Marlins prediction, and for the day's full board check our latest MLB best bets.
To recap, we are playing two angles in this one: the Seattle Mariners on the moneyline (-103) and the Under 7.5 (-110). Both lean on the same read, that the pitching keeps this tight and the better team gets it done at a fair price.
MLB Mariners-Pirates Prediction FAQ
What time does the Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates game start?
First pitch is set for 6:40 PM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2026, at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.
Who is pitching for the Mariners and Pirates?
Seattle is scheduled to start right-hander Bryan Woo, and Pittsburgh is scheduled to start right-hander Braxton Ashcraft.
Who is favored in the Mariners vs. Pirates game?
Pittsburgh is a narrow home favorite on the moneyline at -117, while Seattle sits at +1.5 on the run line.
What is the over/under for the Mariners vs. Pirates game?
The total is set at 7.5 runs, with both the over and under priced at -110.
Who won the last meeting between the Mariners and Pirates?
Seattle won the series opener 3-2 on Tuesday, June 23, 2026, behind a go-ahead home run from Cole Young.