The Cincinnati Reds visit the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday night to open a three-game set at Busch Stadium. The home side sits as a clear favorite on the moneyline. St. Louis is priced at -165, with Cincinnati coming back at +139. Yet both clubs arrive scuffling, and both hand the ball to a struggling starter. That combination makes the favorite’s price worth a second look. Our lead play leans toward the road side finding value, but the total tells its own story. Here is the full breakdown before first pitch.
Last Updated: Friday, July 24, 2026
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| When | Friday, July 24, 2026 — 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Cardinals.TV, Reds.TV (MLB.TV out of market) |
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
Starting pitching sets the tone here, and neither arm inspires much confidence. Cincinnati hands the ball to right-hander Rhett Lowder, who carries a 3-7 record and a 5.75 ERA. His last outing was a disaster. He gave up eight runs on 11 hits over just 2⅓ innings against Colorado. The one bright spot is history. Lowder has thrown eight scoreless innings across two career starts versus St. Louis. Still, his recent form is a real concern.
St. Louis counters with right-hander Dustin May, and his trend line is no better. May owns a 4.78 ERA on the season, but he has posted a 9.92 ERA across his last five starts. In his most recent turn, he allowed five runs on eight hits and four walks over five innings against Arizona. Command has been the issue, with four walks in each of his last two outings. One number does favor him, though. May’s home ERA sits at 3.65, far below his 6.31 mark on the road.
The standings add urgency for the Cardinals. St. Louis enters at 52-50 and sits just 1½ games back of Arizona for the final National League wild-card spot. However, the club just finished a home series against the Diamondbacks and has dropped five of seven since the All-Star break. The bats have gone quiet, hitting just .214 over the last 10 games. Cincinnati, at 47-54, is further from contention but playing slightly better, going 5-5 in its last 10. Both rotations are thin. The Reds are without Nick Lodolo (finger) and Brandon Williamson (shoulder), while the Cardinals miss Ramón Urías and Max Rajcic.
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | +1.5 (-160) | +139 | U 8.5 (-115) |
| Cardinals | -1.5 (+135) | -165 | O 8.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of Friday, July 24, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Reds | 26% | 74% | Cardinals |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Reds vs. Cardinals Prediction — Is the Home Favorite Overpriced?
The market read is the most interesting part of this game. The public is firmly on the Cardinals, with 81% of moneyline bets landing on St. Louis. Normally that kind of lopsided support pushes a home favorite’s price shorter. Here, the number has not budged from its open at -165. When heavy public money fails to move a line, it often hints that sharper money is quietly sitting on the other side. That points toward Cincinnati as a live underdog at a plus-money price.
The baseball case supports the same side, if modestly. May has a 9.92 ERA over his last five starts, and the St. Louis offense is stuck in a rut. Cincinnati has played the better recent baseball, and Lowder has historically handled the Cardinals. A team getting +139 in a near-coin-flip game does not need to win often to turn a profit.
The counter is real, and it starts on the mound. Lowder was shelled in his last start, and his 5.75 ERA is worse than May’s. May is also far better at home, where his ERA is more than two runs lower. If the St. Louis bats wake up against a vulnerable arm, the favorite justifies its price. This is a lean on value, not a statement of confidence.
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (+139)
Reds vs. Cardinals Prediction — How Many Runs Are Really on the Board?
The total opened at 8.5 and has held there, but the juice has shifted. The Under moved from -110 to -115, while the Over drifted to -105. That small move suggests money is leaning toward a lower-scoring game. It is worth noting despite two starters with ugly ERAs.
The situation supports the Under more than the ERAs suggest. Both offenses are cold. St. Louis is hitting .214 over its last 10 games, and Cincinnati sits at .244 in the same span. Both bullpens have pitched reasonably well lately, with the Cardinals at a 3.92 ERA and the Reds at 4.50 across their last 10. Busch Stadium plays close to neutral this season, so the park does not inflate runs the way some venues do.
The obvious risk is the starting pitching. May and Lowder have both been hit hard recently, and a short outing from either could open the door to a bullpen game and a crooked number. Cincinnati also carries real power, ranking fourth in the National League with 134 home runs. If either starter unravels early, the Over is very much alive. Given the cold bats and the market drift, though, the value points the other way.
The Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
This is a matchup between two teams headed in different directions but meeting in the middle. The Cardinals need wins to stay in the wild-card chase, and Arizona, the team holding that final spot, is in action today as well. The Reds are playing looser baseball without the same pressure. Watch the early innings closely. With two shaky starters, the first trip through the order could shape both the side and the total. Bullpen usage will matter late, especially if this stays close into the seventh.
Neither pick here is a heavy lean. Both rest on value rather than certainty, and both carry a clear counter-case. The road underdog offers a fair price in a tight projection, and the total leans low on cold bats and a small market signal.
To recap the plays: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (+139) is the top play, and Under 8.5 (-115) is the second.
MLB Reds vs. Cardinals FAQ: Friday July 24, 2026
What time does the Reds vs. Cardinals game start?
First pitch is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Friday, July 24, 2026, at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. The Cardinals host the Reds in the opener of a three-game weekend series between the two National League Central rivals.
What channel is the Reds vs. Cardinals game on?
The game airs locally on Cardinals.TV in the St. Louis market and Reds.TV in the Cincinnati market. Fans outside those regions can stream it through MLB.TV, subject to blackout rules. There is no national broadcast scheduled for this Friday matchup.
Who is pitching in the Reds vs. Cardinals game on Friday?
Right-hander Rhett Lowder starts for Cincinnati, carrying a 3-7 record and a 5.75 ERA. Right-hander Dustin May takes the ball for St. Louis at 5-7 with a 4.78 ERA. Both starters have struggled badly over their most recent outings, which shapes the betting angles for this game.
Where are the Reds and Cardinals playing today?
The Reds and Cardinals play at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri, the Cardinals’ home ballpark. St. Louis holds a 26-27 record at home this season. The venue hosts all three games in this weekend series between the division rivals.
Where do the Reds and Cardinals stand in the NL Central?
St. Louis sits fourth in the National League Central at 52-50, still in the wild-card mix at 1½ games back of Arizona. Cincinnati is fifth at 47-54, six games out of the final wild-card spot entering Friday’s opener.