Two eliminated clubs open a three-game set at Rogers Centre on Friday night, and the betting market tells a better story than the standings do. Toronto is a modest home favorite at -138 with the total posted at 7.5. Recreational money has stacked up on the Blue Jays, yet the moneyline has not moved a cent. That gap shapes the strongest play here.
Last Updated: Friday, September 25, 2026
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario |
| When | Friday, September 25 – 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet, Reds.TV |
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
Start with the arms. Cincinnati hands the ball to left-hander Nick Lodolo, the club’s listed probable starter. His season line is unflattering: 3-6 with a 5.04 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP over 20 starts, with 80 strikeouts and 44 walks in 103.2 innings. The recent work reads better. Lodolo went seven innings in each of his last two turns, on 90 and 104 pitches, allowing three earned runs to the Cubs and four to the Dodgers.
Toronto has José Soriano lined up on regular rest, though the club had not posted the assignment as of Friday morning. He carries a 3.72 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 174.1 innings and 31 starts split between the Angels and Blue Jays. The split matters. Since the midseason trade he is 3-2 with a 4.73 ERA in nine Toronto starts, and his strikeout rate has fallen from 9.29 per nine to 7.01.
Neither side has anything left to chase. Toronto is 77-82 and fifth in the AL East, 3-7 in its last 10 after dropping both ends of a September 23 doubleheader at Baltimore. Cincinnati is 74-85 and fifth in the NL Central following a 7-6 win at Atlanta on Thursday. Toronto is missing Anthony Santander, Addison Barger and four starters in José Berríos, Jameson Taillon, Dylan Cease and Bowden Francis. Cincinnati is without Hunter Greene and Spencer Steer.
Toronto hits .248 with a .692 OPS. Cincinnati hits .228 but slugs .395 with 211 home runs and 1,514 strikeouts. The pitching gap is wider: Toronto’s staff sits at 3.92, Cincinnati’s at 4.85 with 814 runs allowed.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | +1.5 (-185) | +115 | U 7.5 (-105) |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 (+160) | -138 | O 7.5 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of Friday, September 25, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Reds | 41% | 59% | Blue Jays |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Reds vs. Blue Jays Prediction — Why Won’t This Number Move?
The market read is the load-bearing signal here. Public money is lopsided on the home side: 78 percent of moneyline tickets sit on Toronto against 22 percent on Cincinnati. That volume normally drags the price with it. Instead the Blue Jays opened at -138 and sit at -138 now, and the total has not budged off 7.5. The only market that moved is the run line, where Toronto went from +175 to +160. Movement with the public is the weakest kind there is.
A frozen number under heavy one-way action usually means the handle is not matching the ticket count. Books are normally glad to shade toward the popular side and collect the extra juice. Declining to do it suggests they like the exposure they already hold. The lineups point the same way. Toronto has hit .227 with a .295 on-base mark and a .652 OPS against left-handed pitching, well off its .708 mark against right-handers. Lodolo is a lefty.
The counter-case is real and it lives from the seventh inning on. Lodolo walks 3.82 per nine and has handed games over early this year. Cincinnati’s relief corps is stretched, too. Five arms covered six innings in Thursday’s win at Atlanta, including a save from Emilio Pagán and work from Tejay Antone and Brock Burke, and the club traveled. Toronto was idle Thursday, so its bullpen is rested behind a 3.92 staff ERA.
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (+115)
Reds vs. Blue Jays Prediction — Can Either Lineup Get Comfortable?
Both offenses are stuck in their weaker platoon split on Friday. Toronto’s .652 OPS against left-handers is the softest number on the field, and Lodolo has gone seven innings twice in a row. Cincinnati owns the mirror problem: a .691 OPS against right-handers with 1,124 strikeouts in 3,922 at-bats. Soriano gets ground balls on better than half the contact he allows, which works against a lineup that misses this often.
The venue and Cincinnati’s run prevention argue the other way. Rogers Centre has played about two percent above league average in runs and five percent above in home runs over the last three seasons, according to Statcast park factors. The Reds have 211 homers of their own and a staff that has allowed 814 runs, and their taxed bullpen is the clearest route to a crooked number late. This is a lean, and it leans on the same lineup data as the side above.
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The swing point is Lodolo’s pitch count. Every inning he covers keeps Antone, Burke and Pagán out of the game on short rest, so it serves both positions at once. If Toronto puts traffic on him in the fifth, the read weakens fast. No third angle merits a separate stake, since both plays draw on the same evidence. For more on the slate, see our latest MLB picks coverage.
Picks recap: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (+115) and Under 7.5 (-105).
MLB Reds vs. Blue Jays FAQ: Friday September 25, 2026
What time does the Reds vs. Blue Jays game start?
First pitch is 7:07 p.m. ET on Friday, September 25, 2026, at Rogers Centre in Toronto. This is the opener of a three-game weekend series, and both Saturday and Sunday are scheduled as afternoon games with a 3:07 p.m. ET start.
What channel is the Reds vs. Blue Jays game on?
Sportsnet carries the game for Toronto viewers, and Reds.TV handles the Cincinnati broadcast. TVA Sports has the French-language feed in Canada. There is no national United States television window for this game, so coverage runs through the two regional feeds.
Who is pitching for the Reds tonight?
Left-hander Nick Lodolo is Cincinnati’s listed probable starter. He is 3-6 with a 5.04 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP across 20 starts this season, with 80 strikeouts in 103.2 innings. He has completed seven innings in each of his last two outings.
Where are the Reds and Blue Jays playing today?
The game is at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, with Toronto as the home team. Cincinnati is the visiting club for all three games of this series, which runs Friday through Sunday before both teams close out the regular season.
What is the season series record between the Reds and Blue Jays?
There is no season series record yet. Friday is the first meeting between Cincinnati and Toronto in 2026, and the only three games these clubs play against each other this year all come in this weekend’s set at Rogers Centre.