The Tampa Bay Rays can close out the American League East in the Bronx, and the nightcap of Tuesday’s doubleheader brings the best pitching matchup of the series. Drew Rasmussen faces Max Fried, with New York a -136 home favorite and the total at a low 6.5 runs. Our lead play leans on the hotter starter and a price that has not budged. A second angle targets the run environment.
Last Updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| When | Tuesday, September 22, 2026 — 7:05 PM ET (Game 2 of doubleheader) |
| TV | YES, Rays.TV, TBS (out-of-market) |
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Betting Preview
Rasmussen arrives as one of the steadiest starters in the league. The right-hander is 15-5 with a 2.72 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP over 165 1/3 innings. He has 163 strikeouts against only 29 walks. His last five starts have been even better, with just five earned runs allowed across 31 innings.
Fried owns a 2.63 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, but his season has been broken up. He has made two trips to the injured list with a bone bruise in his left elbow, according to MLB.com’s report on his second IL stint. Since returning in late August, he has been effective but short. He lasted fewer than four innings in two of his four starts. However, his most recent outing was his best of the stretch. He worked seven innings of one-run ball on 88 pitches at Minnesota on September 15.
The standings frame everything. Tampa Bay is 95-60 and leads New York by six games. The Rays’ magic number is two, so a single head-to-head win clinches the division. The Rays are 8-2 in their last 10 games, while the Yankees are 6-4. New York is also playing without Aaron Judge, who went on the 10-day injured list with a right calf strain. Both clubs have already clinched postseason berths.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | +1.5 (-220) | +114 | U 6.5 (-105) |
| Yankees | -1.5 (+180) | -136 | O 6.5 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of Tuesday, September 22, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Rays | 83% | 17% | Yankees |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Rays vs. Yankees Prediction — Is the Road Dog the Better Arm Tonight?
Start with the pitching, because it drives this read. Rasmussen has been the more reliable starter over the last month. He has worked at least five innings in each of his last five starts, and his walk rate is elite. Fried’s workload is the question. Two of his four starts since the elbow issue ended before the fourth inning was complete. If he exits early again, New York has to cover a lot of innings on a doubleheader day. Meanwhile, New York is missing its best hitter, and Tampa Bay has won six of nine meetings this season.
The market adds a quiet note. About 80% of moneyline tickets are on New York, yet the price has not moved from its opening number. A line that holds still against lopsided public support can hint at resistance on the other side. That is a modest signal, not a strong one. Still, it lines up with the baseball read. At +114, the break-even rate is about 46.7%, a fair ask for the better team with the hotter starter.
The case against is real. New York has the better run differential this season, plus-137 to Tampa Bay’s plus-83. Fried is fully capable of shutting down any lineup when he goes deep. The Yankees also roughed up Rasmussen in a 12-4 win on July 9. Finally, motivation could shift. If the Rays win the 1:05 PM opener, they clinch before this game starts and may rest regulars.
The Pick: Rays Moneyline (+114)
Rays vs. Yankees Prediction — Do Two Aces Mean a Quiet Night?
Both starters limit traffic. Rasmussen and Fried each carry a WHIP under 1.00, and both have allowed one earned run or fewer in most of their recent starts. On New York’s side, Judge’s absence removes the most dangerous bat in the order.
The counter-case centers on the schedule. This is the second game of a doubleheader, so each bullpen will have already worked earlier in the day. If Fried’s leash is short, tired relievers could pitch meaningful innings. The Yankees still have plenty of power without Judge. A 6.5 total leaves little margin, since one crooked inning can flip it. This is a lean built on the starters, not a strong play.
The Pick: Under 6.5 (-105)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
No third angle stands apart from the two plays above, so the focus is on what to watch. A Rays win in the 1:05 PM opener settles the division and could change how Tampa Bay manages the nightcap. A Yankees win keeps New York alive and raises the stakes for both clubs. Next, watch Fried’s pitch count early. An efficient start would favor both the Yankees and the under. Also track which relievers each team used in the opener. For more divisional context, see our latest MLB picks coverage.
Our picks for Rays vs. Yankees Game 2:
- Rays Moneyline (+114)
- Under 6.5 (-105)
MLB Rays vs. Yankees FAQ: Tuesday September 22, 2026
What time does the Rays vs. Yankees game start?
The second game of Tuesday’s Rays-Yankees doubleheader starts at 7:05 PM ET at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. The first game, a makeup of a May 23 postponement, begins at 1:05 PM ET. Drew Rasmussen and Max Fried are the scheduled starters for the night game.
What channel is the Rays vs. Yankees game on?
The 7:05 PM ET game airs on YES in the Yankees’ home market and on Rays.TV in the Tampa Bay market. Viewers outside both local markets can watch the game on TBS, which carries it for out-of-market audiences. Check local listings before first pitch.
Who is pitching for the Yankees tonight?
Left-hander Max Fried starts for the Yankees in Game 2. He is 5-4 with a 2.63 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP this season. He has made two injured-list trips with a left elbow bone bruise, but he threw seven innings of one-run ball in his last start at Minnesota.
Is Aaron Judge playing tonight?
No. Aaron Judge is on the 10-day injured list with a right calf strain and is not available for Tuesday’s doubleheader. The Yankees placed him on the IL retroactive to September 17. He was hurt during the September 16 game at Minnesota.
What is the season series record between the Rays and Yankees?
The Rays lead the 2026 season series 6-3 entering Tuesday’s doubleheader. Tampa Bay won all three games of the April series at home. The Yankees won the most recent meeting, 12-4, on July 9. This week’s four games in the Bronx close out the season series.