The Baltimore Orioles (37‑49) travel to Truist Park to face the Atlanta Braves (39‑46) in a traditional Independence Day night game. With Atlanta listed as a heavy favorite and the total sitting at 9 runs, what’s the best bet in tonight’s Orioles vs. Braves matchup?
Orioles vs. Braves Game Info
Baltimore Orioles at Atlanta Braves
7:15 p.m. ET, Friday, July 4, 2025
Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Orioles vs. Braves Public Betting & Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Braves are -168 moneyline favorites to beat the Orioles, who are +142 underdogs. The total, meanwhile, sits at 9 runs.
As of this writing, our MLB Public Betting data page shows that the majority of public bettors are on Atlanta.
Orioles vs. Braves Game Preview
Baltimore will hand the ball to veteran right-hander Charlie Morton, who has struggled this season with a 4–7 record, 5.63 ERA, and 1.57 WHIP across 72 innings. His last outing against Texas saw him allow three runs over five innings, and road numbers have been rough—6.49 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP away from Camden Yards . Still, Morton’s wealth of experience could come in handy if the O’s need length in the game.
Rich in youthful talent, Baltimore’s lineup boasts power and run production. Cedric Mullins leads with 12 home runs, batting .213, while Ryan O’Hearn is surging at .294/.381/.472. The O’s have averaged 4.1 runs per game but are hampered by a pitching staff that’s taken a step back after losing key arms like Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez. On the injury front, second baseman Jordan Westburg and catcher Gary Sánchez are both day-to-day with finger issues.
Braves Battle Rotation Woes
Atlanta comes into the game with a patchwork rotation. After Spencer Schwellenbach’s elbow fracture, spot starter Jackson Stephens—fresh off a strong stint in Triple‑A Gwinnett (3–0 with a 2.94 ERA)—is in line for the mound on Friday. The Braves have been solid at home (24–18) but staggered on the road (15–28), largely due to inconsistent pitching; they’re sporting a 3.35 ERA at Truist Park versus 4.15 on the road.
Offensively, Atlanta is respectable, again averaging roughly 4.1 runs per game with a .244/.319/.379 slash line . Their lineup features thumpers like Matt Olson (267/.325/.427 with 16 homers) and Austin Riley (.274/.325/.427). Defensively, the Braves are middle of the pack, with a .989 fielding percentage and 56 double plays turned.
Key Matchups & X‑Factors
Experience on the mound: Morton’s veteran presence could offset his shaky numbers; if he settles into a groove, it gives Baltimore a chance to hang around.
Atlanta’s bounce‑back chance: Stephens has shown promise in AAA. A solid performance from him would stabilize an ailing Braves rotation.
Power hitters dueling: Both lineups have punch—watch for a mid‑to‑late‑inning slugfest, especially with Olson, Riley, Mullins, and O’Hearn in the mix.
Bullpen depth: Baltimore’s relief corps has been tested, with 301 relievers used and a modest 61% save conversion rate. Meanwhile, Atlanta has managed 56 save opportunities but blown 12, which may leave late innings hanging in the balance .
Orioles vs. Braves Betting Prediction
Take the under. In the last 10 meetings between these two teams, the under is 7-2-1. In fact, you’d have to go back to May of 2023 for the last time these two teams played over the number.
Orioles vs. Braves MLB PREDICTION: UNDER 9