Paul Skenes carries one of the lowest ERAs in baseball, yet Pittsburgh has lost six straight games he has started. That quirk headlines a Friday card that runs 15 games deep. Up in Boston, the first-place Yankees visit Fenway Park without their captain.
Out West, a familiar face takes the mound against the team that traded him. We narrowed the slate to three angles: an afternoon underdog lean, a primetime total at Fenway, and a late West Coast run-line play. See how these fit our recent MLB best bets.
Last Updated: Friday, June 26, 2026
Game 1 — Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — Time & How to Watch
| Where | PNC Park, Pittsburgh PA |
| When | Friday, June 26 – 6:40 PM ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh / FanDuel Sports Network Ohio |
This game pits an ace against his own offense. Skenes owns a 2.85 ERA, and he has allowed two runs across six innings in each of his last three starts. Still, the Pirates have not won a game he started since May 12. The reason is run support, not pitching. Pittsburgh sits near .500 at roughly 41-40, and the bats keep going quiet on his nights.
Cincinnati counters with left-hander Andrew Abbott, who has rebuilt his season after a rough April. He posted a 1.61 ERA in May and a 3.27 mark across four June starts. His season ERA now sits at 3.83. The Reds enter around 37-42, so they are the road underdog on paper. However, the matchup is closer than the records suggest.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | +1.5 (-130) | +163 | U 7.5 (-110) |
| Pirates | -1.5 (+110) | -198 | O 7.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Friday, June 26, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Reds | 28% | 72% | Pirates |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The market tells an interesting story here. The public has hammered the Pirates, with 82% of moneyline bets on Pittsburgh. Yet the Pittsburgh price actually shortened from -215 at open to -198. That reverse line movement points to sharper money on Cincinnati. Abbott has been steady for two months, and Pittsburgh keeps failing to score behind Skenes. The case against the Reds is clear, though. Skenes is an elite arm, and the Pirates have already beaten Cincinnati three straight times this season. We still see value in the underdog price given the line signal.
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (+163)
Game 2— New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Fenway Park, Boston MA |
| When | Friday, June 26 – 7:10 PM ET |
| TV | YES Network / NESN |
The rivalry headlines the night, but both lineups are short-handed. The Yankees are playing without slugger Aaron Judge, who landed on the injured list with a stress fracture in his rib. New York still leads the AL East at 48-32 and has gone 6-4 over its last 10. Boston, meanwhile, sits fifth at 33-46 and has dropped seven of its last 10.
The pitching favors a quieter game. Yankees right-hander Will Warren brings a 3.45 ERA into the start. Boston counters with lefty Payton Tolle, who owns a sharp 3.08 ERA. Boston’s offense is also thin right now, with Garrett Crochet, Triston Casas, Trevor Story, and Roman Anthony all on the injured list. That depleted lineup hit just .232 over the past 10 games.
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -1.5 (+145) | -117 | U 9.0 (-120) |
| Red Sox | +1.5 (-170) | -103 | O 9.0 (+100) |
Odds accurate as of Friday, June 26, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Yankees | 81% | 19% | Red Sox |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The total opened at 8.5 and climbed to 9.0 on public over-money. That move looks generous given the matchup. Both starters carry ERAs under 3.50, and neither lineup is at full strength. The Yankees are without Judge, and Boston is missing several regulars. For more on this matchup, see our Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction. The counterpoint matters, of course. Fenway Park is a hitter’s haven, and rivalry games can turn into bullpen slugfests late. Even so, the inflated number gives us value on the Under.
The Pick: Under 9.0 (-120)
Game 3 — Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Petco Park, San Diego CA |
| When | Friday, June 26 – 9:45 PM ET |
| TV | Sportsnet LA / Padres.TV |
The nightcap delivers an NL West rivalry with a revenge angle. Walker Buehler takes the ball for San Diego against the Dodgers, the first time he faces his former club as a Padre. Buehler carries a 3.96 ERA, but he has been sharper lately, with a 2.05 ERA over his last five outings. San Diego sits second in the division at 42-37.
Los Angeles answers with Roki Sasaki, who has struggled to a 4.76 ERA this season. The Dodgers remain the class of the division at 52-29, roughly nine games clear of San Diego. Petco Park also tilts toward pitchers, which keeps run-scoring in check. That backdrop matters for a run-line decision in a tight rivalry game.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | -1.5 (+120) | -145 | U 7.5 (+100) |
| Padres | +1.5 (-140) | +122 | O 7.5 (-120) |
Odds accurate as of Friday, June 26, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Dodgers | 63% | 37% | Padres |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The public is leaning Dodgers, with 83% of moneyline bets on Los Angeles. The line has nudged the other way, though, drifting from -153 to -145. That hints at support for the home side. Buehler is rolling, Petco suppresses offense, and a one-run game keeps the Padres inside the number. The risk is real, however. Los Angeles is the deeper roster, and the Dodgers can break a tight game open late. Taking San Diego plus the run and a half gives us a cushion in a spot that profiles close.
The Pick: San Diego Padres Run Line +1.5 (-140)
Today’s MLB Best Bets Recap
Our three plays span the slate and mix the bet types. We are on the Cincinnati Reds moneyline in the opener, the Under 9.0 at Fenway, and the San Diego Padres run line in the nightcap. That gives us one moneyline, one total, and one run line across the day.