Shohei Ohtani takes the ball under the lights at Dodger Stadium, and that alone gives this Friday card its headline act. The two-way star has cooled slightly on the mound of late, which changes how a heavily favored Los Angeles side should be priced.
Meanwhile, a red-hot Cubs club hosts St. Louis in an NL Central grudge match, and Washington leans on a left-hander who has pitched like an ace for a month. The Dodgers carry the majors’ best record into the holiday weekend, so finding value against the chalk matters more than usual. Below we break down three angles from this slate: an afternoon side lean where the public has piled onto one team, a mid-evening total shaped by one dominant arm, and a late West Coast run-line play on a lopsided favorite. Keep reading for the reasoning behind each.
Last Updated: Friday, July 3, 2026
Early Game — St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Wrigley Field, Chicago IL |
| When | Friday, July 3 – 4:05 PM ET |
| TV | Marquee Sports Network |
This rivalry opener pairs contrasting arms. St. Louis sends right-hander Andre Pallante (9-5, 3.83 ERA), a steady rotation piece who limits damage with grounders. Chicago counters with lefty David Peterson (4-6, 5.86 ERA), acquired recently and still settling in with his new club. On paper, the Cardinals hold the starting-pitching edge, even on the road.
The form lines cut the other way, however. The Cubs enter Game 1 at 49-38 overall and winners of nine of their last 10. St. Louis sits at 45-39 but has gone just 5-5 across its last 10, and the bats have cooled to a .236 clip in that stretch. Chicago also owns a strong home mark at Wrigley Field.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | +1.5 (-180) | +110 | U 10.5 (+100) |
| Cubs | -1.5 (+155) | -132 | O 10.5 (-120) |
Odds accurate as of Friday, July 3, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Cardinals | 29% | 71% | Cubs |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline (+110)
The public has stacked this game, with roughly 71% of run-line tickets and an even larger share of moneyline bets on Chicago. That lopsided support, paired with Pallante’s clear ERA advantage over Peterson, points to value on the road dog at plus money. In contrast, the case for Chicago is real. The Cubs are red-hot, they play well at home, and St. Louis has scuffled offensively over the past two weeks. If Peterson settles in and the Cubs’ bats stay hot, the underdog ticket loses. Still, at +110 against a struggling opposing starter, the Cardinals offer enough margin to back.
Mid-Day Game — Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Nationals Park, Washington DC |
| When | Friday, July 3 – 6:45 PM ET |
| TV | MASN |
Washington opens this three-game set behind left-hander Foster Griffin (8-2, 2.93 ERA), who has been the story of the Nationals’ rotation. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in five consecutive starts, a run of ace-level work. That form is the anchor for a lower-scoring script in this one.
Pittsburgh answers with right-hander Mitch Keller (6-5, 4.87 ERA), a durable arm who has been hittable at times this season. The Pirates’ offense ranks among the league’s quieter units, which limits the upside on the over. Meanwhile, a rested bullpen behind Griffin gives Washington a path to keep the run total down late.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | +1.5 (-165) | +128 | U 9.5 (-110) |
| Nationals | -1.5 (+140) | -153 | O 9.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Friday, July 3, 2026. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Pirates | 18% | 82% | Nationals |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: Under 9.5 (-110)
Griffin’s month-long stretch of suppressing runs is the driver here. Facing a light-hitting Pittsburgh lineup, he profiles to keep the scoreboard quiet through six or seven innings. The Pirates and Nationals matchup also features a total that has stayed at 9.5 with no movement. On the other side, Keller is the risk. If he gives up a crooked number early and the Nationals’ bats pile on, the under is in trouble by the middle innings. A bullpen hiccup on either side could push it over as well. Even so, Griffin’s form and Pittsburgh’s offense tilt this toward the under.
Late Game — San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles CA |
| When | Friday, July 3 – 10:10 PM ET |
| TV | SportsNet LA |
The nightcap is the marquee. Los Angeles hands the ball to Shohei Ohtani, who carries a 1.58 ERA across 79.2 innings this season. That headline number still dwarfs the field. Recently, though, he has wobbled, allowing 10 runs (nine earned) over his last 18.2 innings. San Diego counters with Michael King (5-7, 3.55 ERA), who tossed seven shutout innings against these Dodgers back in May.
The standings tell the bigger story. Los Angeles sits at 57-31 and leads the NL West comfortably, while San Diego is scuffling near .500. That gap is why the Dodgers are priced as heavy favorites, and why the public has flooded the home side.
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | +1.5 (-105) | +205 | U 8.0 (-110) |
| Dodgers | -1.5 (-115) | -250 | O 8.0 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Friday, July 3, 2026. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Padres | 8% | 92% | Dodgers |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: San Diego Padres Run Line +1.5 (-105)
Roughly 92% of run-line tickets sit on the Dodgers, and that kind of one-sided action often inflates the price on the favorite. Ohtani’s recent dip and King’s prior gem against Los Angeles give the underdog a live path. At near pick-em juice, the Padres’ +1.5 covers whenever San Diego wins outright or loses by exactly one run. The counterpoint is straightforward. Los Angeles is a 57-31 club with a deep lineup at home, and if Ohtani rediscovers his early-season form, the Dodgers can win comfortably by multiple runs. That risk is why we lean to the run line rather than the moneyline. The extra 1.5 runs is worth the modest juice against a juggernaut.
Today’s MLB Best Bets Recap
Three plays anchor this holiday-eve card. We back the St. Louis Cardinals on the moneyline as a road dog fading heavy public support in the afternoon opener. We take the under 9.5 in Washington behind Foster Griffin’s month of dominant starts. And we side with the San Diego Padres on the run line as a live underdog against a cooling Shohei Ohtani in Los Angeles.