Milwaukee arrives in St. Louis carrying the best record in the National League, and the Brewers hand the ball to a rookie who has been close to untouchable. That primetime matchup headlines an eight-game Thursday board, yet the value is spread across the evening.
A heavily bet favorite in Detroit is drawing quiet resistance, a hittable starter in Cincinnati sets up a total, and a division leader in St. Louis is asked to win by multiple runs. Three angles stand out: a twilight moneyline underdog, a hitter’s-park total, and a primetime run line. For how the board played a day earlier, see Wednesday’s MLB best bets.
Last Updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026
Mid-Day Game — Athletics at Detroit Tigers
Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Comerica Park, Detroit MI |
| When | Thursday, July 9 – 6:40 PM ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network Detroit / NBC Sports California |
On paper this is a mismatch. Detroit sends left-hander Framber Valdez and his 4.29 ERA to the mound, while the Athletics counter with right-hander Jack Perkins, whose ERA sits above 6.00. Yet the market is telling a different story. The Tigers opened around -143 and have been bet back to -128, a move toward the underdog even as the public piled onto Detroit. Our feed shows roughly 82% of run-line tickets on the Tigers, so the line drifting the other way is a classic reverse-line-movement signal. For the full breakdown of this matchup, see our Athletics vs. Tigers prediction.
There is also a form angle underneath the ERA. In his last outing, Perkins struck out six over five-plus innings against Pittsburgh, and his expected ERA is far lower than his actual mark. The A’s, at 41-47, also own a better record than the 38-50 Tigers.
Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | +1.5 (-180) | +107 | U 9 (-115) |
| Tigers | -1.5 (+155) | -128 | O 9 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of July 9, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Athletics | 18% | 82% | Tigers |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: Athletics Moneyline (+107)
The case for the A’s is the line itself. Sharper money is nudging the number toward Oakland’s road side while the public leans Detroit, and Perkins’ underlying metrics point to positive regression at a plus price. The case against is straightforward and important: Valdez is clearly the superior starter, and public teams are not always wrong. A 6.00-plus ERA arm carries real downside. Still, catching a live underdog at plus money with the line moving your way is the kind of spot that pays over time.
Late Game — Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati OH |
| When | Thursday, July 9 – 7:10 PM ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Philadelphia / Cincinnati Reds / MLB Network |
This one sets up as a total play. Philadelphia, at 51-42 and firmly in the postseason mix, sends left-hander Jesus Luzardo to the mound with a 3.75 ERA and 125 strikeouts across 103 1/3 innings. Cincinnati, at 42-49, counters with right-hander Brady Singer, who has struggled to a 5.03 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP this season. That walk-and-hit rate is the crux of the angle.
Great American Ball Park has long played as a hitter-friendly venue, and Singer’s contact profile gives the Phillies’ lineup room to do damage. The number is worth noting too. This total opened at 9.5 and has been trimmed to 9, so an over ticket now needs less to cash than it did when the line posted.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | -1.5 (-105) | -164 | U 9 (+100) |
| Reds | +1.5 (-115) | +138 | O 9 (-120) |
Odds accurate as of July 9, 2026. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Phillies | 80% | 20% | Reds |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: Over 9 (-120)
The case for the over is the Singer matchup. His high WHIP means baserunners, and Philadelphia has the bats to convert traffic into crooked innings in a park that rewards contact. The case against is Luzardo. He misses plenty of bats, and a strong outing from him can hold Cincinnati down and keep the game on the under side. The juice at -120 also trims the value. Even so, the lowered number and Singer’s profile tilt this toward runs.
Late Game — Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Busch Stadium, St. Louis MO |
| When | Thursday, July 9 – 7:45 PM ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin / Midwest |
The Brewers own the National League’s top record at 54-32 and roll out rookie right-hander Logan Henderson, who has been excellent in a small sample. Henderson carries a 2.74 ERA over 23 innings, and in his last start he spun five scoreless frames with seven strikeouts against the Dodgers. Milwaukee has been bet from -130 up to -139, so the market agrees the visitors are the stronger side tonight.
St. Louis is no pushover at home. Right-hander Andre Pallante brings a 10-5 record and a 3.60 ERA, and he tossed 5.2 scoreless innings at Wrigley Field his last time out. The Cardinals, at 46-39, remain in the NL Central hunt behind Milwaukee. This projects as a tight, well-pitched game, which is exactly the tension in the run-line play.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | -1.5 (+125) | -139 | U 8.5 (-115) |
| Cardinals | +1.5 (-145) | +116 | O 8.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of July 9, 2026. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Brewers | 63% | 37% | Cardinals |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: Brewers Run Line -1.5 (+125)
The case for laying the run line is the plus price. Milwaukee is only a modest moneyline favorite, yet the -1.5 pays +125, strong value on the league’s best team with a hot rookie starting. If Henderson keeps St. Louis quiet, the Brewers can pull away late. The case against is the nature of division games. Pallante is pitching well, and one-run finishes are common in this rivalry, the built-in risk of any -1.5 ticket.
Today’s MLB Best Bets Recap
Three picks across the evening. Back the Athletics on the moneyline as a live road underdog in Detroit, take the over in Phillies-Reds at Great American Ball Park, and lay the Brewers run line at plus money in the primetime opener at Busch Stadium.