The Chicago Cubs came into this series needing one win to lock up a postseason berth. Two days later they are still waiting. Miami has taken both games at Wrigley Field, and the Cubs have scored exactly two runs in each. Chicago is favored again at -212 with a total of 7.5. Yet one part of this market has not budged since it opened, and that is the most interesting thing on the board.
Last Updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois |
| When | Thursday, September 24 — 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marquee Sports Network |
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
The pitching matchup shifted late. Chicago had been lined up to use Clay Holmes, but moved him back and listed left-hander Matthew Boyd as Thursday’s starter. Boyd is 9-5 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP across 21 starts. He has also been steady lately. He worked five innings of one-run ball at Cincinnati on September 19 and went seven at Milwaukee on September 7 with seven strikeouts, and he has not allowed more than four earned runs in any of his last three outings.
Miami counters with right-hander Tyler Phillips, who is 5-6 with a 3.45 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 122.2 innings. The ERA looks fine. The workload behind it does not. Phillips has failed to finish four innings in each of his last two starts, throwing 68 pitches on September 12 against the Dodgers and 50 on September 18 at San Diego. He did beat the Cubs on September 6, but that took only five innings. Miami is handling him carefully, and that matters after the fourth.
The standings add urgency on one side and none on the other. Chicago is 87-71 and remains in win-and-in mode with four games remaining, tied with Philadelphia and a game behind San Diego. Miami is 78-80 and eliminated, yet the Marlins have won three of the five meetings this season. Chicago is also without Alex Bregman, who suffered multiple facial fractures on a foul ball.
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | +1.5 (-140) | +172 | U 7.5 (-105) |
| Cubs | -1.5 (+120) | -212 | O 7.5 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of September 24, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Marlins | 23% | 77% | Cubs |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Marlins vs. Cubs Prediction — Why Won’t This Number Move?
Start with what the market did overnight. The Cubs opened at -193 and have been bet up to -212. That is ordinary, because roughly four of every five moneyline tickets are on Chicago. The run line tells a different story. Chicago opened at -1.5 (+120) and sits there still, unchanged, even though 77 percent of run-line bets are on the Cubs. When a number refuses to move under that kind of one-sided action, the book is usually comfortable holding it.
The structure of the game supports that. Chicago is the home team, which is the worst setup for laying 1.5 runs. If the Cubs lead after the top of the ninth, the game ends, and walk-off wins often land by exactly one. About 28 percent of major league games finish with a one-run margin, which is why the line sits where it does. Add an offense that has managed two runs in each of the last two games, and the case for a two-run Chicago win thins out.
The counter-argument is real. Chicago is playing for its season, Boyd has been the steadier starter lately, and a desperate home favorite is a live blowout candidate. Miami has nothing left to play for, and its bullpen is worn down after a 12-inning Tuesday and four more relievers Wednesday. Pete Fairbanks is out for the season following thoracic outlet surgery, which is part of why Sandy Alcantara finished Wednesday’s game. See also our Marlins vs. Cubs prediction for Sept. 23.
The Pick: Marlins Run Line +1.5 (-140)
Marlins vs. Cubs Prediction — How Long Can Phillips Last?
The second angle rests on innings, not runs allowed. Phillips has not reached the fifth in either of his last two turns, and neither exit followed a blowup. Miami simply took the ball. That puts the Marlins bullpen on the hook for five or more innings a third straight day. Tuesday’s 12-inning game required eight Miami relievers, and Wednesday took four more. Depth that thin tends to show up in the middle innings.
The market has nudged the same way. The total opened at 7.5 with -110 on both sides and now carries -115 on the over. That is a small move, however, and skepticism is fair in a series where these teams have combined for nine runs in two games. Boyd has been giving Chicago length, too. This is a lean built on bullpen exposure rather than on either offense waking up, and it can lose without the read being wrong.
The Pick: Over 7.5 (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The swing moment is the fourth and fifth innings. If Phillips is pulled early and Miami’s middle relief has to cover, Chicago gets its best chance to build a lead big enough to make the run line irrelevant. If Miami gets through that stretch level or ahead, the Cubs are chasing a bullpen that has closed out two straight here.
One more thing worth watching is not a bet. Pete Crow-Armstrong enters the finale with 45 home runs and 39 stolen bases, one steal short of a 40/40 season. Only seven players in major league history have done it, so the incentive to run is obvious.
To recap the two plays: Marlins Run Line +1.5 (-140) and Over 7.5 (-115). Both are leans rather than convictions. Both can also be wrong in the same script, since a Chicago blowout takes down the run line while cashing the total. For more of the slate, see our latest MLB picks coverage.
MLB Marlins vs. Cubs FAQ: Thursday September 24, 2026
What time does the Marlins vs. Cubs game start?
First pitch is set for 2:20 p.m. ET on Thursday, September 24, 2026, at Wrigley Field in Chicago, which is 1:20 p.m. local time. It is an afternoon getaway-day start and the finale of a three-game series, closing out the Cubs’ regular-season home schedule.
What channel is the Marlins vs. Cubs game on?
Marquee Sports Network carries the local television broadcast in the Chicago market, as it has for all three games of this Marlins-Cubs series at Wrigley Field. Viewers outside the local territory can find the game through out-of-market packages, which vary by provider.
Who is pitching for the Cubs today?
Left-hander Matthew Boyd starts for Chicago. He is 9-5 with a 4.06 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP and 93 strikeouts over 119.2 innings in 21 starts this season. Chicago moved Boyd up to Thursday after reshuffling the rotation, with Clay Holmes pushed back to Friday’s doubleheader in Boston.
Who won the last meeting between the Marlins and Cubs?
Miami won 3-2 at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Kyle Stowers hit a two-run homer off Kevin Gausman, Dansby Swanson answered with a two-run single, and Joe Mack’s seventh-inning groundout drove in the winner. Sandy Alcantara took the save.