Marlins vs. Braves Sunday Prediction
The Marlins picked up a victory on Saturday night in Atlanta but their offense continues to scuffle. With Sean Newcomb on the hill today for the Braves, will Atlanta’s pitching staff hold Miami’s offense under 3.5 runs for bettors?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Sunday, April 7, 2019
1:20 p.m. ET, SunTrust Park, Atlanta, GA
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Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Braves are -149 moneyline favorites. As of this writing, 77% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Braves to beat the Marlins on the moneyline.
This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.
Miami Marlins Fantasy Spin
Jorge Alfaro went 3-for-4 with a pair of homers and three RBI to lead the Marlins to a 4-2 comeback win over the Braves on Saturday. Alfaro jump-started the Marlins comeback by launching a towering, opposite-field solo shot off Braves’ starter Kyle Wright in the fifth inning. He also capped off an impressive three-hit performance by slicing a go-ahead, two-run blast to right field off lefty reliever A.J. Minter in the ninth inning. The 25-year-old backstop possesses an intoxicating blend of raw athleticism and power, but his omnipresent contact issues have rendered him useless in shallow fantasy formats. He’s still striking out at an alarming rate, but if he continues to hit for this much over-the-fence power, he’s worthy of a speculative pickup in deeper mixed leagues.
Atlanta Braves Fantasy Spin
Ronald Acuña went 0-for-4 with a pair of strikeouts in the Braves’ loss to the Marlins on Saturday. Acuña drew a leadoff walk in the fifth inning and also hit a pair of balls extremely hard (exit velocities of 103 and 104 mph, respectively) against Marlins’ starter Sandy Alcantara, but had nothing to show for it in this one. The 21-year-old burgeoning fantasy superstar is off to a sluggish start, hitting .143/.314/.357 with two homers and one steal. Yet, he’s walked more times (seven) than he’s struck out (six) in 36 plate appearances this season. It feels like only a matter of time before everything comes together for Acuña.
MLB Betting Trends
Despite their win last night, the Marlins are still just 4-12 in their last 16 games versus the Braves overall and are 5-16 in their last 21 contests in Atlanta.
The Braves are a perfect 5-0 in Newcomb’s last five starts versus the Marlins.
I took the over on the Braves’ team total (4.5) on Saturday but Atlanta was held to just two runs. The under is now a perfect 7-0 in the last seven meetings between these two teams and is 4-1 in the last five meetings at SunTrust Park. Thus, if you want to go that route, it’s not a bad play. That said, the Braves offense is capable of busting out at any point (especially at home) and I want to avoid a scenario in which Atlanta cashes the over on its own. That’s why I like Miami’s team total of under 3.5 runs. Newcomb dominated the Marlins last season, winning all four starts while allowing two runs in 24 innings. Miami has managed to draw the third fewest walks thus far.
The Pick: Miami Marlins Team Total UNDER 3.5 (-125) Runs