The New York Mets and Cleveland Guardians close out their three-game set Thursday afternoon at Progressive Field, and the market can barely separate them. Cleveland sits at -116 on the moneyline, New York at -104, and the total is parked at a modest 7.5 runs. Two starters with strong command headline the matchup, so scoring may be hard to find. We lean toward a quiet afternoon, and break down why below.
Last Updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio |
| When | Thursday, August 6 — 1:10 PM ET |
| TV | SNY (New York), Guardians local broadcast (Cleveland) |
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
The pitching is the story here, and it starts with New York’s arm. Nolan McLean is the Mets’ probable starter, carrying a 3.29 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and 148 strikeouts across 22 starts. His recent work is even better than the season line. McLean has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last five outings, including scoreless starts against Boston and Philadelphia, with just one or two walks in every one of those games.
Cleveland counters with left-hander Foster Griffin, who is 12-3 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Griffin does not miss many bats, at roughly 8.1 strikeouts per nine, but he pounds the zone and rarely beats himself. However, he is coming off his worst start of the year, a six-run outing at Atlanta. Before that, he had four straight strong starts, including a nine-strikeout gem against Houston.
Neither offense makes this easy on itself. Cleveland ranks near the bottom of the league at under four runs per game and has dropped four of its last five. New York is not much better at the plate, hitting .233 as a team, though the Mets have taken the first two games of this series. In contrast, the Guardians own one of baseball’s steadier bullpens, which matters in a game this tight. Progressive Field grades as a neutral park, so the run environment comes down to the arms and the bats.
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | +1.5 (-230) | -104 | U 7.5 (-115) |
| Guardians | -1.5 (+190) | -116 | O 7.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of August 6, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Mets | 40% | 60% | Guardians |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Mets vs. Guardians Prediction — Can Either Lineup Solve These Arms?
Start with the run environment, because that is where the signals stack up. McLean and Griffin both throw strikes and limit free passes, and free passes are what turn quiet innings into crooked numbers. When two starters walk almost nobody, the offense has to string hits together to score, and neither of these lineups is built to do that consistently right now.
The bullpen picture reinforces the read. Cleveland’s relief corps has been a season-long strength, so any late lead is likely to hold rather than leak runs. The total opened at 7.5 and has stayed there, with the under carrying slightly more juice, a small sign the market also sees a lower-scoring game.
The case against is real. Griffin just gave up six runs in his last start, so the sharp version of him may not show up. One swing clears the fence and changes the math on a total this low, and if either starter exits early, the middle innings open up. Still, a low total, two command starters and two struggling offenses is a clean alignment.
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
Mets vs. Guardians Prediction — Does the Hotter Arm Have the Edge?
If there is a side worth touching in a near pick’em, it rests on the starter who is throwing better right now. McLean has been the more dominant arm over the last month, and New York has already beaten Cleveland twice this week, including a 6-5 win on Wednesday. At a price around even money, backing the hotter starter on a team that has solved this opponent is a fair spot. Because the game projects tight, the moneyline is the cleaner route than laying the run line.
The counter is straightforward. Griffin is 12-3 for a reason, and his command travels even when his strikeouts do not. Cleveland is home, where it bats last, and its bullpen is better equipped to protect a one-run game late. New York’s offense is far from a sure thing. This is a lean, not a heavy stance, and a one-run game could easily land the other way.
The Pick: Mets Moneyline (-104)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The swing factor is how deep each starter works. If McLean and Griffin both reach the sixth or seventh, the under is in great shape and the game likely stays a one- or two-run affair late. The moment to watch is Griffin’s first turn through the order, given that his last outing got away from him early.
For readers who want to isolate that edge, the first five innings under is a natural extension of the same read, since it removes late bullpen surprises. To recap the two plays we are committing to: the strongest is Under 7.5 (-115), and the secondary lean is the Mets on the moneyline (-104). You can also revisit our Mets-Guardians prediction from Wednesday for how this series has played out.
MLB Mets vs. Guardians FAQ: Thursday August 6, 2026
What time does the Mets vs. Guardians game start?
First pitch is set for 1:10 PM ET on Thursday, August 6, 2026, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. This is a weekday afternoon game and the finale of a three-game series between the two clubs.
What channel is the Mets vs. Guardians game on?
The game airs regionally on SNY for New York viewers and on the Guardians’ local broadcast for Cleveland viewers. It is also available through MLB.TV subject to regional blackout rules. Check your local listings, since coverage differs by market for this afternoon matchup.
Who are the starting pitchers for Mets vs. Guardians?
Right-hander Nolan McLean starts for the Mets, bringing a 3.29 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and 148 strikeouts over 22 outings. Left-hander Foster Griffin takes the ball for the Guardians at 12-3 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Both starters own strong command profiles.
Where do the Mets and Guardians stand in their divisions?
The Guardians entered Thursday at 57-58, sitting second in the American League Central. The Mets came in at 49-66, last in the National League East. Both teams have been scuffling lately, with New York and Cleveland each losing ground in recent games.
Who won the last meeting between the Mets and Guardians?
New York won the most recent meeting, taking Wednesday’s game 6-5 at Progressive Field. That result gave the Mets the first two games of this three-game series, meaning Thursday’s finale is a chance for New York to complete the sweep and for Cleveland to avoid it.