Liberty vs. Mercury WNBA Prediction: Will NY pull off small upset?

Storm vs. Liberty Storm vs. Liberty

Friday night brings an elite WNBA clash as the defending champion New York Liberty (11–3) head west to face the red-hot Phoenix Mercury (11–4) at Footprint Center. After kicking off their season strong, both clubs boast double-digit wins—but with New York’s court supremacy tested by injury and Phoenix riding a five-game win streak, this encounter could prove decisive in shaping the conference landscape. What’s the best bet in tonight’s Liberty vs. Mercury matchup?

Liberty vs. Mercury WNBA Event Info

New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury

10:00 p.m. ET, Friday, June 27, 2025

PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ

TV: ION

Liberty vs. Mercury Betting Odds

According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Mercury are 1.5-point home favorites to beat the Liberty. The total, meanwhile, sits at 167.5 points.

Game Preview

Season Series & Momentum

This marks their second meeting this season. The Mercury edged out the Liberty 89–81 on June 19 in New York—despite shooting just 41.7%—a victory fueled by Monique Akoa Makani’s 21 points and a swarming defense forcing 20 turnovers.

Phoenix has since extended their dominance, currently on a five-game winning streak, capped by a statement 107–86 win in Chicago.

Meanwhile, the Liberty have shown resilience, but dropped two of their last five games, including that loss to Phoenix, and continue to face depth challenges.

Team    Offense Defense           Notable Players

Liberty 87.8 PPG, 45.6% FG      77.3 PPG allowed, 39.4% opp FG            Breanna Stewart (21.0 PPG), Natasha Cloud (6.5 APG)

Mercury           82.3 PPG, 42.8% FG      78.2 PPG allowed, 42.2% opp FG            Satou Sabally (19.3 PPG), Alyssa Thomas (stats in rebounding & playmaking)

Injury Watch: The Liberty are without Jonquel Jones (ankle) and Leonie Fiebich (Germany duty). Phoenix will miss Lexi Held (rib), though their core remains intact.

X‑Factors

New York leans on Stewart’s dominance and Cloud’s court vision, but bench depth will be tested without Jones.

Phoenix thrives on balanced scoring—Sabally, Thomas, Copper, and Whitcomb—and have surged defensively, forcing turnovers and capitalizing in transition

Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction

Expect a close, physical contest. Phoenix’s confidence from their recent streak and home-court edge gives them the slight advantage. Still, the Liberty’s star power and championship pedigree keep them firmly in it. In fact, I expect New York to pull off the small upset.

Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction: NEW YORK LIBERTY +1.5