The Los Angeles Dodgers bring the National League’s best record into Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday for the finale of a three-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies. The clubs split the first two games, so this rubber match settles it. It also pits a red-hot Dodgers left-hander against a Phillies veteran in the roughest stretch of his career. Our lean sides with the road team, and the pitching matchup is why.
Last Updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| When | Wednesday, July 22 — 6:40 PM ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Philadelphia / Spectrum SportsNet LA |
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Eric Lauer takes the mound for Los Angeles, and his surface numbers understate his recent work. Lauer is 4-5 with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, but that line is weighed down by an ugly early run in Toronto. Since joining the Dodgers, he has posted five quality starts in seven outings, and Los Angeles has won all seven of his starts. He is not a strikeout artist, though, so contact will find gloves in an unforgiving ballpark.
Aaron Nola answers for Philadelphia, and the contrast is stark. The right-hander is 3-7 with a 5.68 ERA and has not won since May 26, allowing at least two runs in 13 straight starts. There is a flicker of stabilization — two quality starts in three July outings — but his margin for error against a deep Los Angeles lineup is thin.
The standings frame the stakes. The Dodgers (64-38) own the NL’s best record but have cooled to 4-6 over their last 10. The Phillies (56-46) sit second in the NL East and have been steadier of late. Los Angeles leads the season series 3-2 and won Tuesday 2-1, while Philadelphia took the opener 10-7. One caveat for the Dodgers: their pitching depth is stretched, putting extra weight on the bullpen late.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | -1.5 (+135) | -121 | U 9.5 (-115) |
| Phillies | +1.5 (-160) | +101 | O 9.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of Wednesday, July 22, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Dodgers | 71% | 29% | Phillies |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Dodgers vs. Phillies Prediction — Can Nola Keep the League’s Best in Check?
The case for backing Los Angeles starts with the arm advantage. Lauer has been steady and efficient, while Nola keeps surrendering early, multi-run damage. A lineup this deep, facing a pitcher in that skid, has a path to building a lead rather than scratching out a one-run win. The Dodgers are also the road team, which matters here. A visiting favorite bats in the ninth and gets extra swings to pad a lead, whereas a home team stops hitting once it leads for good. Add a hitter-friendly ballpark, and the makings of a comfortable margin are present.
The market has nudged toward the Dodgers since the open, firming them from a near-pick’em price to a clear favorite. That move only tracks the heavy public money on the road side, so it reads as sentiment, not sharp conviction. With three-quarters of the tickets on the favorite, the value is not on the moneyline. It sits on the alternative, which rewards a team built to win by more than one.
The counter-case is real. Lauer is a contact pitcher in a park that punishes contact, and one loud Philadelphia inning can flip the math. More important, the Dodgers’ bullpen is short-handed, so even a lead is not safe late. Roughly 28% of MLB games are decided by a single run, and if this is one of them, the margin evaporates.
The Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (+135)
Dodgers vs. Phillies Prediction — Will the Rubber Match Turn Into a Track Meet?
The other number worth a long look is the total, posted at 9.5. On the surface, a struggling Nola in a bandbox screams fireworks, and the opener’s 10-7 result feeds that instinct. Yet the market has quietly leaned the other way. The juice on the under has climbed since the total opened, a subtle sign that informed money expects fewer runs than the marquee names suggest.
There is baseball behind the move. Lauer generates soft contact and has worked six full innings in each of his last four starts, keeping innings short. Nola, for all his trouble, has two quality starts in three July outings, a hint his command is returning. Two starters capable of six steady frames can drain scoring, even in a hitter’s park. The risk is clear: the ballpark inflates totals, the Dodgers’ thin bullpen can spill runs late, and Nola’s floor is low. Still, at an elevated number, the lean is toward run prevention.
The Pick: Under 9.5 (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
This finale comes down to whether Lauer’s efficiency holds up and whether the Dodgers’ offense does its usual damage against a vulnerable starter. Watch Nola’s first two innings. If Los Angeles jumps ahead early, the road team’s ninth-inning at-bats become the difference in the run line. The swing factor is the Dodgers’ overworked bullpen, the biggest reason this game could stay closer than the pitching matchup implies.
For readers who want the starting-pitching gap without the shaky Los Angeles bullpen, a first-five-innings play on the Dodgers isolates Lauer against Nola and removes the late-inning variance. It is another way to back the same read. For more plays across the slate, see our latest MLB best bets.
To recap, our two best bets for Wednesday are the Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (+135) and Under 9.5 (-115). Both rest on the same foundation, an edge in the starting-pitching matchup, with the honest counter being a Los Angeles bullpen that could keep Philadelphia within reach.
MLB Dodgers vs. Phillies FAQ: Wednesday July 22, 2026
What time does the Dodgers vs. Phillies game start?
First pitch for Dodgers vs. Phillies is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET on Wednesday, July 22, 2026, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. It is the finale of a three-game series, with the Dodgers holding a 3-2 edge in the season series between the two clubs.
What channel is the Dodgers vs. Phillies game on?
The Dodgers vs. Phillies game airs on NBC Sports Philadelphia in the Phillies market and Spectrum SportsNet LA in the Dodgers market, with out-of-market coverage on MLB.TV. Because these are regional broadcasts, the channel available to you depends on where you are watching from.
Who is pitching for the Dodgers on July 22?
Left-hander Eric Lauer is the probable starter for the Dodgers, opposite Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola. Lauer carries a 4-5 record and a 4.81 ERA on the season, but he has pitched far better since joining Los Angeles, posting five quality starts across his last seven outings.
Who won the last meeting between the Dodgers and Phillies?
The Dodgers won the most recent meeting, edging the Phillies 2-1 on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, in Philadelphia. That result evened the current series at a game apiece after the Phillies took the opener 10-7, setting up Wednesday’s rubber match at Citizens Bank Park.