The best record in baseball rolls into Queens on Saturday night with its ace on the mound. The Los Angeles Dodgers hand the ball to Yoshinobu Yamamoto against a New York Mets club fighting to steady a sinking season. Los Angeles opened as a road favorite, and the price has only firmed since. The side drawing all the public money is not where we start, though. The run environment is where the sharper value sits.
Last Updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| When | Saturday, July 25 — 7:15 PM ET |
| TV | FOX |
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets Game Preview
The pitching matchup drives everything here. Los Angeles sends Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound with a 10-6 record and a 2.78 ERA. He is coming off the first complete game of his career against the Yankees. Yamamoto also handled this same Mets lineup in April, allowing one run over 7.2 innings. He is one of the stingiest arms in the National League right now.
New York counters with rookie right-hander Nolan McLean, who carries a 3.34 ERA across 20 starts. However, McLean has been better than that season line lately. Over his last five outings he owns a 2.40 ERA with 38 strikeouts against nine walks. His most recent start was six scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts against Philadelphia. He has allowed only two earned runs over his last four starts combined.
The standings tell a lopsided story. Los Angeles enters at 66-38, the top record in the majors and first place in the NL West. New York sits at 43-61 and has lost nine of its last 10 games. The Dodgers took Friday’s opener 4-2 behind a strong Roki Sasaki start, and they have won all four meetings between these teams this season. Citi Field also matters. It has played as a pitcher-friendly park since it opened, with deep alleys that punish anything but well-struck contact.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | -1.5 (+100) | -174 | U 7.5 (+100) |
| Mets | +1.5 (-120) | +143 | O 7.5 (-120) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, July 25, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Dodgers | 87% | 13% | Mets |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Dodgers vs. Mets Best Bet — Will Yamamoto Keep New York Bats Holstered?
Start with the run environment, because that is where the numbers point most clearly. Two quality starters are on the mound in a park that suppresses offense. Yamamoto has been elite, and McLean has pitched like an ace over the last month. Meanwhile, the Mets bats are cold. New York scored just three runs across the entire April series against Los Angeles and hit a miserable .132 in those games. A slumping lineup facing this ace in this ballpark is a recipe for a low count.
The market agrees, which matters. The total opened at 8 and has since dropped to 7.5, with the price on the higher side of the number tightening. That move signals money on the lower run projection, and it lines up with the pitching and the park. Friday’s opener between these same teams landed at 4-2, another quiet night on the scoreboard.
Still, there is a real case the other way. The Dodgers own one of the deepest lineups in baseball, and a rookie can unravel in a single inning. McLean did struggle in May, when he gave up 16 earned runs over three starts. One crooked number from Los Angeles flips this read, and the near-even price says the market sees a close call. The lean is toward run suppression, not a runaway.
The Pick: Under 7.5 (+100)
Dodgers vs. Mets Prediction — Does the Los Angeles Have the Edge?
The gap in team quality is hard to ignore. Los Angeles is 66-38 and New York is 43-61 and reeling, and the Dodgers have swept all four meetings this season. Yamamoto against a fading lineup gives Los Angeles the cleaner path to a comfortable night. As the road team, the Dodgers also bat in the ninth regardless of the score, so they keep swinging to extend any lead they build. That is the ideal setup for laying the extra run at a plus price.
The counter is genuine. The moneyline has already climbed to -174 with 88 percent of the public on Los Angeles, so the outright number offers little value. A low-scoring projection also means one-run games are live, and McLean pitching like an ace could keep this 2-1 into the late innings. A narrow Dodgers win does not cover the extra run, and the Mets at +1.5 are the safer side of this market. The read here is that the run line, at even money, is the better price than the steep favorite.
The Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (+100)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
A few things will decide this one. Watch whether Yamamoto commands his splitter early, because a clean first turn through the order can bury a Mets lineup that is pressing. Watch McLean’s sinker too, because if he keeps the ball on the ground he can trade zeros deeper than the price suggests. The bullpens become the swing factor only if either starter exits early, so a long outing from Yamamoto tilts both the side and the total toward Los Angeles.
For more Saturday plays, see our Angels vs. Giants prediction and our Diamondbacks vs. Nationals pick.
To recap the card for Dodgers-Mets: the top play is Under 7.5 (+100), built on two quality arms in a pitcher’s park against a cold lineup. The secondary play is the Dodgers run line -1.5 (+100), a plus-money route onto the far stronger team rather than laying the inflated moneyline. Both plays lean on the same idea of a controlled, low-scoring night in Queens.
Dodgers vs. Mets FAQ: Saturday July 25, 2026
What time does the Dodgers vs. Mets game start?
First pitch is set for 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, July 25, 2026, at Citi Field in Flushing, New York. It is the middle game of a three-game weekend series between Los Angeles and New York.
What channel is the Dodgers vs. Mets game on?
The game is nationally televised on FOX as part of its Saturday evening baseball window. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the first-place Dodgers against the Mets headline the primetime slot from Citi Field in Queens.
Who is pitching for the Dodgers on July 25?
Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto starts for Los Angeles. He enters with a 10-6 record and a 2.78 ERA, and he is coming off the first complete game of his career against the Yankees. Rookie Nolan McLean starts for New York.
Where are the Dodgers and Mets playing today?
The game is at Citi Field in Flushing, Queens, the home ballpark of the New York Mets. The Dodgers are the visiting team, closing out a road trip before heading home.
Who won the last meeting between the Dodgers and Mets?
Los Angeles won the series opener 4-2 on Friday, July 24, 2026, behind a dominant start from Roki Sasaki. That result gave the Dodgers a 4-0 record against the Mets this season, including a three-game sweep back in April.