Braves vs. Reds Thursday Prediction
The Atlanta Braves will try to earn a series split versus the Cincinnati Reds when the two teams wrap up their series at 12:35 p.m. ET. Are the Braves worth a play as a road favorite on Thursday afternoon?
Game Snapshot & Odds
901 Atlanta Braves (-140) at 902 Cincinnati Reds (+120); 9 runs
Thursday, April 26, 2018
12:35 p.m. ET, Great American Ball Park
TV: ATL (FSSO); CIN (FSO)
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Public Betting Trends
Oddsmakers from online sportsbook YouWager currently list the Braves as a -140 favorite. As of this writing, 68% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Braves to beat the Reds on the money line. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.
Braves’ Newcomb coming off good start vs. Mets
Sean Newcomb surrendered three runs — two earned — in six innings and didn’t earn a decision against the Mets on Friday. He struck out five, walked three and allowed six hits in the quality start. He was lifted after tossing 105 pitches in the contest and will need to be more efficient if he wants to rack up wins. His record holds at 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA. He has 27 strikeouts and 11 walks in 21 2/3 innings spread over four starts.
Reds’ Bailey pitching much better in 2018 coming off horrible season
Homer Bailey surrendered three runs in 5 2/3 innings and took a no-decision against the Cardinals on Saturday. He teed up a two-run homer to Paul DeJong in the second inning and a solo shot to Dexter Fowler in the sixth to account for all the damage. He allowed seven hits, issued two walks and struck out four while coming up one out short of a quality start.
Bailey seems much improved over last year’s nightmare campaign. He is still looking for his first win and has three losses in five starts. If he can maintain his quality 3.68 ERA and 1.16 WHIP he is sure to snare a few wins despite the fact the Reds’ under-powered offense isn’t likely to provide him with much run support.
MLB Betting Trends
Atlanta
The Braves are 2-6 in Newcomb’s last eight road starts and have dropped four of his last five outings overall.
Cincinnati
The Reds have lost 10 of Bailey’s last 12 home starts and are winless in his last five outings overall.
Prediction:
Even though Bailey has been significantly better than what he was a year ago, there are two things that bring me to back the Braves. The first is that I don’t trust what I’m seeing with Bailey. Is this a pitcher that has suddenly found it or are we simply dealing with a small sample size?
The second reason I’m backing Atlanta on Thursday is that even with Bailey pitching well, the Reds are still finding ways to lose with him on the mound. Newcomb needs to be more effective if he’s going to rack up the wins but he’s a better bet than Bailey in my eyes.
The Pick: Atlanta Braves -140