Yankees vs. Astros Pick
Oddsmakers at sports book Bovada.lv have listed the Astros as a -186 favorite to win on the moneyline. The Yankees are a +161 underdog and the over-under is 8.
The Yankees advanced to the ALCS by first winning the AL Wild Card Game by an 8-4 count over the Twins, while they proceeded to then overcome a 2-0 series deficit against the Indians and won Game 5 by a score of 5-2 on Wednesday. Houston defeated the Red Sox in four games in the ALDS, winning Game 4 5-4 in Boston.
Houston has gone 5-2 in the season series against the Yankees, while the over-under is also 5-2 with the last five games going over.
Pitching for New York will be Masahiro Tanaka (13-12, 4.74 ERA), while the Astros turn to Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90). Tanaka had a 1.24 WHIP with 194 strikeouts over 178 1/3 innings during the regular season. He was oustanding in Game 2 against Cleveland as he threw seven shutout innings with three hits allowed, one walk and seven strikeouts in a 1-0 victory. Tanaka has a bloated 6.48 ERA in 83 1/3 road innings. He was crushed for eight earned runs on seven hits with three strikeouts and one walk over 1 2/3 innings in a loss earlier this year to Houston. Keuchel had a 1.12 WHIP with 125 strikeouts in 145 2/3 innings during the regular season. He gave up one earned run on three hits with seven strikeouts and three walks over 5 2/3 innings in an 8-2 win over Cleveland in Game 1 of the ALDS. He carries a 2.26 ERA in 71 2/3 home innings. He gave up one unearned run on five hits with nine strikeouts and one walk over six innings in a win earlier this year against the Yankees.
In their Game 5 win, Brett Gardner went 3-for-5 with a run and an RBI. Didi Gregorius was the hitting hero as he was 3-for-4 with two home runs and three RBIs. David Robertson earned the win in relief and Aroldis Chapman picked up the save.
Houston was led by George Springer as he was 3-for-4 with a double, a run and an RBI in Game 4 versus Boston. Josh Reddick went 2-for-4 with an RBI. Yuli Gurriel finished 3-for-5 with a double and a run. Justin Verlander earned the win in relief and Ken Giles got the save.
Keuchel was great in a start earlier this year against New York, while Tanaka allowed four home runs in just over an inning versus the Yankees. While it's unfair to judge Tanaka on that start alone, he is going up against a stacked lineup on their home field. Tanaka's struggles on the road this year have us leaning heavily toward Houston in the series opener.
MLB DAILY PREDICTION: HOUSTON ASTROS -186