Indians vs. Yankees Pick
According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, the Yankees are listed as a -156 favorite to win on the moneyline. The Indians are a +136 underdog and the over-under is set at 7.5.
New York cut its series deficit to 2-1 Sunday night via a 1-0 victory over Cleveland. The Indians have won seven of the last 10 meetings this season and the over-under is 4-5-1 in those games.
Pitching for Cleveland tonight wll be Trevor Bauer (17-9, 4.19 ERA), while New York counters with Luis Severino (14-6. 2.98). Bauer finished the regular season with a 1.37 WHIP and 196 strikeouts over 176 1/3 innings. He was fantastic in Game 1 against the Yankees as he threw 6 2/3 shutout innings with two hits allowed eight strikeouts and one walk in a 4-0 victory. He carries a 4.54 ERA in 73 1/4 road innings this year. Seveino held a 1.04 WHIP with 230 strikeouts in 204 1/3 innings in the regular season. He was ineffective in the AL Wild Card Game as he lasted only one-third of an inning, giving up a three-run homer in an 8-4 home win over the Twins. Severino has a 3.71 ERA in 97 home innings this year. He is 1-1 in two starts versus the Indians, posting a 2.70 ERA with five runs (four earned) allowed on six hits with 18 strikeouts and four walks over 13 1/3 innings.
In Sunday night's win, Greg Bird provided the lone run with a solo homer for the Yankees in the bottom of the seventh inning. Masahiro Tanaka threw seven innings to earn the win, allowing three hits while striking out seven and walking one. Aroldis Chapman threw 1 2/3 innings to earn the save. Jason Kipnis went 2-for-4 with a triple to lead Cleveland. Andrew Miller took the loss in relief. Carlos Carrasco started the game, throwing 5 2/3 shutout innings with three hits surrendered along with seven strikeouts and three walks.
Severino really struggled in the AL Wild Card start, showing that perhaps the adrenaline of the moment was too much for the young pitcher. Now he is taking the mound in an elimination game and the Yankees have to hope his psyche is different. Meanwhile, Bauer stifled New York in Game 1 and is a pitcher who is fantastic at changing his game plan from one start to the next. So if the Yankees think they have an idea of how Bauer plans to attack certain hitters, chances are they are wrong. Although we do expect Severino to be much better this start, we still expect Cleveland to touch him up for a few runs with the wind blowing out to left field in what is already a home run haven without the help. We like Cleveland to win in an upset and advance to the ALDS.
MLB DAILY PREDICTION: CLEVELAND INDIANS +136